Market and Portfolio Analysis - 11/02/2026
Dear Investors,
In the past two years, we have seen most tech companies grow because of AI. The narrative was: "imagine what they can do once they embed AI into their systems".
Right now, we see most of these companies go down because of AI. The narrative has switched to: "maybe AI will take over their systems".
Investors are quickly trying to avoid getting caught owning any company with even a small perceived risk of being displaced by AI. From smaller software companies to large wealth-management and financial firms, the reaction has been the same, and it has been aggressive.
For some of these stocks, we are seeing drawdowns comparable, in percentage terms, to the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid lockdown.
As usual, I like to buy strong companies when the general public is panicking and offering them at very discounted prices.
And I believe that, right now, there are two very interesting opportunities, for different reasons.
$AJG (Arthur J.Gallagher & Co)
On Monday, the online marketplace Insurify unveiled a new application that uses ChatGPT to compare auto-insurance rates. US insurance brokers sold off sharply on this news.
A legitimate question is: “Aren’t you afraid that AI could eventually replace insurance brokers?”
My view is that the risk is being overstated.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is not simply an auto-insurance comparison platform. The company is heavily focused on commercial insurance, specialty lines, and risk management services. These are areas where relationships, underwriting complexity and advisory work matter far more than simple price comparison.
Furthermore, the stock is down nearly 40% from its highs. This has only happened four times since its IPO in 1984:
Black Monday (1987): -58.33%
Dot-com bubble (2001): -44.07%
Financial crisis (2008): -50.56%
Covid lockdown (2020): -40.17%
In every one of those cases, the company went through the crisis, continued growing, and eventually made new all-time highs.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, but history shows a business model that has proven resilient across very different environments.
As long as the balance sheet remains solid and cash generation intact, I see this type of drawdown as an opportunity rather than a threat.
$SPGI (S&P Global Inc)
S&P Global Inc. was already retracing from its highs and received another push lower after the latest earnings report, which came in below expectations but still confirmed strong profitability and cash generation.
SPGI is effectively a toll road on global capital markets. It operates with very high margins, generates significant free cash flow, and provides essential infrastructure through ratings, indices and market data.
Competitors exist, but replacing this ecosystem at scale is not realistic in the short or medium term.
Down 31.6% from its highs, this is the kind of opportunity that does not appear frequently.
Both companies would also add diversification to our portfolio, currently tilted toward high-growth tech.
At the moment, however, I am staying on the sidelines. Given our exposure to more volatile names, maintaining liquidity is important to take advantage of opportunities within existing positions, in case volatility continues.
Should we reduce some exposure and bring cash reserves above 20%, these two stocks would be next in line for consideration.
Thanks for reading and good luck.... Show More
It’s been a tough market and you doing great to reduce the amount of red. Bravo! I equate your portfolio to a Warren Bufffet style in you select good strong companies and happy with steady growth. It’s certainly been a challenge which I appreciate you trying to work hard to correct. These new opportunities... Show More
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Tue Mar 10 2026 00:07:40 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
