Mathijs Frencken
Netherlands
2m
Edited
What’s Behind $GOOG (Alphabet)’s ~20% Jump Over the past month, Google surged by about 20%. Several key developments are driving investor optimism and pushing the stock higher. Here’s what’s going on: Antitrust Ruling Favours Alphabet A major factor was a recent court decision in the U.S. that relieved GOOG from being forced to sell its Chrome browser. The ruling means that Alphabet can continue its default-search deals (e.g. paying for Chrome to be preloaded) which are important to its ad/search revenue model. Investopedia Removing this uncertainty lifted a big regulatory overhang and boosted confidence in GOOG’s core Search and browser business. Analysts responded by raising their price targets. In its most recent earnings, Alphabet topped revenue and profit expectations. Investors are particularly encouraged by the growth in Google Cloud and the rollout/investment in AI services. These businesses are increasingly seen not just as future potential, but as growing contributors to revenue and margin. Broader markets have been buoyed by signs that interest rate pressures may be easing. With inflation somewhat moderating and some market participants anticipating rate cuts, growth stocks like Alphabet tend to benefit. Softer macro data (jobs, yields) also supports a more favorable environment for high growth companies. Valuation Re-rating / Multiple Expansion Once regulatory risk was seen as less severe, investors appear more willing to assign a higher valuation multiple to Google. That is, Google's price recovering reflects not just stronger fundamentals, but market believing those fundamentals will sustain — especially in AI, search, ad spend, and cloud. ⚠️ Risks to Watch Regulatory risk remains non-zero. Even though the Chrome ruling was favorable, other antitrust or privacy-related risks could still be in the pipeline. Rising competition in AI, cloud, and search (from Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI etc.) could pressure margins or require heavy investment. Macro risks: inflation, rate hikes, geopolitical uncertainty, or tech-sector rotation could reverse some of the gains. Google's recent ~20% gain isn't just market momentum or hype — it’s rooted in solid earnings, regulatory wins, and an improving macro backdrop, especially for big tech growth. If you believe in the long-term thesis for AI, cloud, and search dominance, the recent run may have more room to go. But as always, keep an eye on risks, especially on the regulatory front. My average buy price for Google is currently at +-$153 but I believe that even at current prices there still is room for upside.
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