๐ Initial Jobless Claims Surprise
What It Means for Us as Investors and Traders
๐ or ๐ โ
Be well prepared for the next FOMC ๐
Dear followers and copiers, the latest US jobless claims report came in much stronger than expected, with initial claims dropping 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since early autumn. The 4-week moving average also fell to 214,750, showing this isnโt just noise but part of a trend of labor market strength.
The insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.3%, and continuing claims dipped slightly to 1.939 million.
So what does this mean from a market perspectiveโโโ
๐ด The US Labor Market Is Still Too Strong
Weโre still not seeing the kind of softening the Federal Reserve wants to justify aggressive rate cuts. Job losses are not accelerating, which means:
โ๏ธ consumption stays supported
โ๏ธ recession risk gets pushed further out
โ๏ธ wage-driven inflation doesnโt fully disappear
For us, this reduces the probability of an early, deep rate-cut cycle that would boost risk assets like $BTC and US indices such as $NSDQ100 , $SPX500 and $DJ30 .
๐ต Good News = Bad News (Short Term)
In normal markets (we are far from normal market๐), strong employment data is bullish. In a policy-driven market, strong jobs data can delay the pivot which is why we often see volatility after a โpositiveโ surprise.
The market wanted:
Weak data โ Fed cuts โ liquidity rally ๐๐๐
Instead we got:
Strong data โ Fed cautious โ markets reprice risk๐๐๐
This explains why $NSDQ100 and $SPX500 can pull back even on good macro data.
โซ๏ธ Volatility Ahead of the Fed
For December, US indices may correct after a strong November rally and the dollar may strengthen VS EUR and JPY. $GOLD may consolidate until the Fed signal and crypto volatility rises because liquidity timing matters for $BTC
Weโre already seeing profit-taking in high-beta sectors, rotation into defensives, and traders reducing exposure ahead of the December FOMC meeting.
My Strategic View
This report doesnโt kill the pivot story, it shifts it into 2025 pricing.
The Fed wants:
โ inflation trending down
โ employment cooling gradually
โ no hard landing
๐ค This data supports that scenario.
So:
- short-term negative for the โimmediate pivotโ narrative
- medium-term positive because the US economy can absorb the final tightening
- long-term bullish for equities and risk assets like $NSDQ100 , $SPX500 , $DJ30 and $BTC once the cut cycle begins.
What am I doing???
As a trader and mid term investor I do these things:
I will wait and avoid chasing rallies before the December meeting. I am expecting to see volatility and false moves this week and next week. I keep cash ready for post-FOMC opportunities.
Best Regards,
A.H... Show More
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Tue Jan 20 2026 07:06:43 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
