Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 23 ᴍᴀʀᴄʜ 2026 This..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 23 ᴍᴀʀᴄʜ 2026 This could turn out to be bad — or very, very bad. It could also be fine. Most investors still expect Trump to chicken out, as he has done before. That belief helps explain why the MSCI World index is down only 5% year-to-date. There may indeed be a 50% chance that the conflict de-escalates over the coming weeks and months. https://x.com/SpecialSitsNews/status/2035559975427133648 It is the other 50% that is problematic. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for an extended period, oil could rise to $150–200 per barrel. That would likely trigger a global recession, with equities falling 20–30%. In a more extreme scenario — where Middle Eastern oil and gas infrastructure is significantly damaged — oil could spike to $200–300. That would imply a severe global recession and a market drawdown closer to 40%. The crash could become even worse If the conflict escalates into a US ground invasion. The US budget deficit is already running at 6% of GDP. An oil shock causing a mild recession plus the cost of the invasion could push this to 8-10% of GDP. At that point, markets may begin to question US fiscal credibility. A sharp rise in interest rates — and the risk of a financial crisis — could not be ruled out. The likely policy response would be yield curve control, effectively capping rates at the cost of a much weaker US dollar. In such a scenario, equity losses could approach 50% — a 2008-style outcome. None of these outcomes in the “bad” half of the distribution appear meaningfully priced into equities today, which is why the majority of the portfolio is in cash. The priority now is simple: preserve capital, stay in the game, and be in a position to deploy the cash when the uncertainty clears. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 Cash has been increased above 70%. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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