Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 9 ᴍᴀʀᴄʜ 2026 The..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 9 ᴍᴀʀᴄʜ 2026 The portfolio entered the war in Iran in about the worst possible position: heavily exposed to banks, travel companies and the UAE. My view had been that the global economy was strengthening, with the expansion likely continuing until at least mid-2026. Being positioned for that scenario rather than for war, the portfolio lost 10% in the last week. The reaction of markets to the war has differed across geographies depending on whether they are oil importers or exporters. Japanese equities have fallen 8%, European markets 9%. Both geographies are oil importers. The U.S. market, by contrast, has fallen only 3%. If you looked at the S&P 500, you would not even know that a war is going on or that oil prices have surged. What will happen next? One explanation for the S&P 500’s resilience is the expectation that President Trump will soon chicken out and negotiate a ceasefire. This would be consistent with his behaviour last year, when tariffs were quickly rolled back after markets panicked. The problem with this line of reasoning is that, unlike unilateral tariffs, ending a war requires two parties to agree. Iran has now been attacked twice in the past twelve months. To restore deterrence against future attacks, Iran will have to show that attacking them carries a very high cost. The only way they can do this is to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. If the Strait were closed for a prolonged period, oil prices would need to rise enough to destroy demand. That level is probably in the $150–200 per barrel range — far above current prices. Oil at those levels would push inflation higher, force interest rates up again and weaken economies globally. In that scenario, we could be looking at the end of the current economic cycle. I cannot rule out this outcome, which is why I have again increased the share of cash in the portfolio. I would be happy to increase the risk level of the portfolio again if the war ends, or if markets fall sufficiently in response to higher oil prices that bargains start to emerge. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 Cash been increased to 65% of the portfolio. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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