Yuri Zemtsov
Estonia
3m
So far, the new year has brought no major moves in the market, except for the steady rally in precious metals. Logically, they should eventually be followed by a re-rating of base metals and the broader commodity complex, but that’s likely a story for the second half of the year. The market remains largely inertial. The labor market is cooling in a consistent way, and that’s exactly what’s underpinning the bullish narrative in risk assets. The economy isn’t so much strong as it is weak enough for the Fed to keep easing. In January, the regulator will most likely pause — historically, in rate-cut cycles, more decisive moves have tended to start in March. On January 14, the Supreme Court will review the legality of Trump’s tariffs. If they are ruled unlawful, pressure on risk assets could intensify, although Trump’s team is already looking for workarounds. If the tariffs are upheld, that could become a trigger for a fresh bullish impulse.
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