Momentum-Juul @Momentum-Juul: "𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲..."

Norway

Edited

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱: 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀 The portfolio is up 3,45% in the first two weeks of 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which has faced challenges with major companies like NVIDIA and Apple struggling at the start of the year. The portfolio’s strong beginning to the new year is driven by $INSW (International Seaways Inc) $COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc) $SANM (Sanmina Corp) $NTES (NetEase Inc.-ADR) , all of which are up more than 10% the first two weeks. We are witnessing a turnaround in the tanker market for International Seaways (INSW), where stock prices were excessively pushed down during the second half of 2024. Investment Bank Analyst Rating Updates bring positive upward momentum for these companies. During 2024, this portfolio gained 40,5%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which climbed 23,3%. This return was achieved without any exposure to cryptocurrency or gearing/leverage. The portfolio is exclusively composed of stocks and is well-diversified across different sectors, which has proven beneficial at the start of 2025. In the coming months, I will explore new opportunities and identify quality companies to add to the portfolio. With the stock market currently at an all-time high, the key question remains: 𝑪𝒂𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒎𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒖𝒎 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒖𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒈𝒉 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓? That’s the big question. Over the past few years, we’ve seen the stock market withstand rising interest rates and high inflation. Despite a turbulent market, companies have managed to earn more money. I recently conducted a detailed macroeconomic analysis, and in summary, the trend shows that 𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒌𝒆𝒚 𝒎𝒆𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒄𝒔 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒃𝒆𝒆𝒏 𝒂𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒔𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔. There are several factors that can explain why the stock markets have set new records despite a prolonged period of high interest rates, challenging inflation and a relatively difficult macroeconomic situation. 𝙃𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙨𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙢𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙨𝙝𝙚𝙙 𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨: 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱: The stock market is often driven by expectations of future economic growth. Although the current macroeconomic situation is marked by high interest rates and uncertainty, investors believe that central banks will begin/continue to lower the rates. This creates an expectation of lower rates in the future, which is positive for the stock market. 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Many of the largest publicly traded companies, such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Nvidia, have delivered solid results and driven their stock prices to record highs. Their ability to generate revenue and grow despite high interest rates has had a significant impact on the markets. This also applies to companies involved in AI and green technologies, which are sectors with strong long-term growth potential 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀: For many years, investors have tended to rely on the idea that central banks (such as the Federal Reserve) will step in if the markets begin to fall significantly. This is often referred to as the 'Fed put', which is an unofficial expectation that central banks will take action to support the markets if they decline too much. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗱𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱: The labor market is strong, and economic growth has been better than expected. Companies have also been able to adjust to higher interest rates and have managed to maintain profitability. 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗮𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: Many investors still believe that long-term economic growth will continue and that the current economic challenges are temporary. This optimism can lead them to invest in stocks despite macroeconomic difficulties. 𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗮𝗺𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲: In many markets, there is still a significant amount of capital available for investment, both from private investors, pension funds, and other institutional players. 𝗙𝗢𝗠𝗢: When the stock markets start setting new records, it can trigger a self-reinforcing effect, where investors feel the need to invest in order to not miss out on opportunities. As more investors jump on the market wave, this can drive prices even higher for a long period of time. As stock prices rise, it strengthening the optimism. Based on this, I believe the risk of not being in the stock market right now is to big. That said, a major downturn often comes as a surprise. In such a market, I believe the key is to strive to limit risk. I think this can best be achieved by being invested in a well-diversified portfolio of quality companies. So, it will be interesting to see what 2025 will bring, and whether there will be other drivers beyond AI and cryptocurrency from 2024 that take hold of the market.