๐ ๐๐ผ๐พ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐: ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ซ๐๐จ ๐๐ค๐ฅ๐๐จ ๐ค๐ ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ ๐๐ช๐ฉ, ๐๐ช๐ฉ ๐ก๐๐ฆ๐ช๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ฎ ๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ฃ๐จ ๐ฉ๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ฅ
The financial week, although shortened by the US Thanksgiving holiday, was marked by rises. Attention was entirely captivated by signals from Central Banks and a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Here are the key points currently influencing global portfolios.
๐บ๐ธ ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐จ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฃ๐
The main catalyst was the decidedly "dovish" signal emanating from the Federal Reserve.
๐๐๐ ๐พ๐ช๐ฉ ๐๐จ ๐ฝ๐๐๐ : John Williams' statement reopened the discussion on a potential rate cut as early as December, reversing recent expectations. Markets reacted with a strong rebound, beginning to reconsider the hypothesis of a more aggressive monetary easing cycle in 2026.
๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ง๐ค๐ฌ๐ฉ๐: Despite the continuous slowdown in US inflation, economic growth has not yet shown a true signal of acceleration. Next week, the ISM Manufacturing data will be published: a decisive rise would serve as a definitive signal of a cycle restart. Such a scenario would offer crucial support to small cap and tech stocks.
๐น ๐๐ค๐ง๐๐ญ
The repricing of Fed rates had an immediate impact on currency markets:
๐๐๐/๐๐๐ฟ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐๐ค๐ฅ๐ค๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐๐จ: The US dollar is weakening due to Fed rate cut expectations. EUR/USD is seen as undervalued and has upside potential. A positive breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine geopolitical negotiations could push the Euro higher, thanks to a drop in energy costs and further dollar weakness.
โ ๏ธ ๐พ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ก๐๐๐ ๐ค๐ช๐ฉ
๐๐๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก ๐ฝ๐ก๐๐๐ ๐ค๐ช๐ฉ: A cooling system failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the world's largest derivatives exchange, interrupted trading of futures on currencies, indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq), and commodities (Oil, Gold) for hours. This event not only caused strong volatility at the opening but also reignited the debate on the need for greater transparency and decentralization to increase stability and investor confidence.
๐ ๐พ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ค
Although there was a rebound from the lows of a few days ago, the entire market remains under pressure.
๐ฝ๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐๐ฃ: The cryptocurrency reacted strongly to the change in rate sentiment, rebounding by +14% and reclaiming the $91,000 mark. However, the digital gold remains under pressure, and the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether we are facing the construction of a floor from which to then restart, or a classic retracement after an oversold moment.
๐พ๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ช๐จ๐๐ค๐ฃ
Markets are preparing to face December, a month that historically boasts an upward propensity. Nevertheless, the spotlight remains on high-profile dynamics such as FED monetary policy, international liquidity management, and the evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The confluence of these uncertainty factors represents the main catalyst for potential volatility.
In the absence of indicators suggesting an imminent economic contraction, the baseline scenario remains constructive. The convergence of a geopolitical dรฉtente, the continuation of the inflation slowdown, and a central bank pivot towards more accommodative positions are elements that could jointly favor an extension of the rally towards new market peaks.
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Thu Jan 15 2026 07:42:13 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
