Part_Time_Joe @Part_Time_Joe: "Dear fellow investors, Like every Sunday,..."

Germany

Edited

Dear fellow investors, Like every Sunday, it's time to review the events of the past week and provide a brief outlook for the upcoming one. 🔎 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: The past week's attention centered on economic data from the US and earnings releases from major tech companies. Both the earnings releases and the economic data proved to be mixed, resulting in an overall downturn in the markets. 𝘜𝘚𝘈: In summary, concerns about a recession have resurfaced. The job data reported on Friday fell significantly short of expectations. Rather than the anticipated 190,000 new jobs, only 114,000 were reported, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, contrary to the expected 4.1%. On top of that the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.2, missing expecations as well. This has heightened concerns that the risk of a hard landing is escalating, and the anticipated rate cut in September may arrive too late. The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma. If economic data deteriorates, it seems inevitable that rates will be cut in September to bolster economic activity. However, there is still inflationary pressure, and premature and rapid rate cuts could reignite inflation. It appears that, regardless of the direction taken, the risk of escalating economic tension is on the rise. Market participants interpreted this economic data, along with some slightly disappointing earnings reports, as a signal to de-risk their portfolios. Consequently, tech stocks experienced partial double-digit declines. It is reasonable to expect that the heightened market volatility will continue. 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢: Chinese markets continue to consolidate. The China NBS Manufacturing PMI and the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI have shown a decrease in factory activity, with the latter notably falling short of expectations. The forthcoming earnings reports from Xiaomi, Tencent, and Alibaba could potentially shift market sentiment should they align with forecasts. Let's see. 𝘎𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘺 / 𝘌𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦: Europe has once again presented mixed economic data. The figures from Germany fell short of expectations, with the GDP growth rate for Q2 at -0.1%, contrary to the forecasted +0.1%, and the inflation rate slightly higher at 2.3%. On a European level however, at least the GDP growth rate met expectations (+0.6%), while Inflation came in higher again with 2.6%. 👓 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤: Next week, the emphasis should once again be on earnings releases. Nevertheless, certain economic data from the USA, China, and Germany, such as trade balance information, may attract attention. Market participants will likely concentrate on any indicators that could provide insights into economic activity to evaluate the risk of a hard landing. 📆 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐩𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: 𝘔𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘺: USA: ➡️ ISM Services PMI (Forecast: 51 // prev. 48.8) China: ➡️ Caixin Services PMI (Forecast: 50.6 // prev. 51.2) Earnings Releases: ➡️ Palantir 𝘛𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘥𝘢𝘺: USA: ➡️ Balance of Trade Earnings Releases: ➡️ Amgen, Uber, Airbnb 𝘞𝘦𝘥𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘥𝘢𝘺: Germany: ➡️ Balance of Trade ➡️ Industrial Production (Forecast: +1.4% // prev. -2.5%) Earnings Releases: ➡️ Walt Disney, Commerzbank, Siemens Energy 𝘛𝘩𝘶𝘳𝘴𝘥𝘢𝘺: China: ➡️ Balance of Trade USA: ➡️ Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast: 247k // prev. 249k) Earnings Releases: ➡️ Eli Lilly, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Gilead Sciences 𝘍𝘳𝘪𝘥𝘢𝘺: China: ➡️ Inflation Rate YoY (Forecast: 0.3% // prev. 0.2%) Germany: ➡️ Inflation Rate YoY (Forecast: 2.6% // prev. 2.5%) Have a good trading week! $GER40 $DJ30 $GOLD $NSDQ100 $HKG50 $ABNB (Airbnb Inc) $UBER (Uber Technologies Inc.) $ALV.DE (Allianz SE) $SIE.DE (Siemens Aktiengesellschaft) $GILD (Gilead Sciences Inc) $PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.) $LLY (Eli Lilly & Co) $AMGN (Amgen Inc) $DIS (Walt Disney) $ENR.DE (Siemens Energy AG) $DTE.DE (Deutsche Telekom AG) $CBK.DE (Commerzbank AG) Last but not least, welcome @Patriziolobrano. Glad to have you as a follower! Best, Part_Time_Joe