FundManagerZech @FundManagerZech: "🌍👋 𝗛𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 👋🌍 TL;DR 1. Good..."

Australia

🌍👋 𝗛𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 👋🌍 TL;DR 1. Good Position 📉 - We dodged a bullet by reducing risk before major stock drops. But still got shot badly 2. Some Good, Some Bad 💥💩 - We had some wins, but it’s time to exit Summit Therapeutics after strong gains. 3. Dollar Bet 💸 - Our USDCHF bet isn’t great right now, but we’re hedging with USDSGD, expecting central bank intervention. ________________________________________________________________ ✨ 𝟯 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 ✨ 𝟭. 𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 📉 We derisked slightly before Nvidia’s earnings announcement, and it turned out to be a good move. Our big bets like Danaos, Valaris, TS, and all Chinese stocks continued their terrible performance—and they crashed hard. Usually, I’d be less hesitant to pull the trigger in times like these. Imagine a stock dropping 20%-30% with no company news, while the broader market is down just 5%. It’s a screaming buy if the company is cashflow-positive with little debt, like $DAC (Danaos Corp) and $VAL.US (Valaris Limited) Absolute insanity. We’re almost ready to rerisk, but not quite yet. 𝟮. 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗱, 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗱 💥💩 The past few months have been an absolute 💩 show in my opinion. That said, we did have a few decent wins: CADJPY added +0.5% to the portfolio, Aave & $BNB another +0.5%, and one of our biggest bets, Summit Therapeutics, $SMMT (Summit Therapeutics Inc) contributed +3-4%. However, it’s time to let Summit Therapeutics go. It was a great 3-4x return, but I have no edge at these levels. With acquisition rumors swirling, I don’t see why it can’t drop by 50%, or shoot up another 100%. I’m out. Side note: We make a lot of side bets, and they don’t always work out. But sometimes, they’re screaming successes like this one. Stay cool—not every trade is going to be a 3-4x return. 𝟯. 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝘁 💸 One of the biggest contributors to the rough patch these past months is our $USDCHF position, which is currently dragging the portfolio down by 4-5%. While we’ve traded in and out over time, the recent collapse has hurt—thanks to dollar weakness and Europe’s strength. I tend to fade these moves, though. To reduce correlation, we’re using USDSGD to average down and are hopeful for a return of dollar strength. If the USD doesn’t strengthen and the Singapore Dollar gets too strong too fast, intervention might happen. The Singapore Dollar operates under something called the NEER band (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate), and the central bank typically intervenes when it moves outside the band.

5 Mentioned

DAC

Danaos Corp

VAL.US

Valaris Limited

BNB

Build and Build

SMMT

Summit Therapeutics Inc

USDCHF