Carl Nilsson @Duntan123: "⚖️ A Fragile Balance —..."

Sweden

Edited

⚖️ A Fragile Balance — But Still Bullish Ahead Good morning everyone! ☀️ The markets are holding up, but it’s a delicate equilibrium right now. Despite the green on the screen, several signals are flashing caution, especially the bearish divergence on the RSI. Price action has been making higher highs, but RSI hasn’t followed — a classic sign of weakening momentum beneath the surface. That doesn’t mean we’re heading for disaster, but it does mean the risk/reward balance is shifting. $SILVER Mission Accomplished I’ve now closed all my silver positions, both physical and miners, with an average unleveraged profit of around +95%. That’s a fantastic result on what’s usually considered a relatively slow-moving commodity. Technically, silver has been showing clear signs of exhaustion. The RSI broke down from overbought levels, and the MACD has turned negative on the daily chart. The recent sharp drop we saw was the market confirming that momentum has flipped. From a risk perspective, the upside potential has shrunk while the downside risk has grown — so it’s simply prudent to take profits and step aside. There will be another day to buy, but for now, I’m happy to lock in those gains and redeploy capital when the odds improve. 💻 Tech & Crypto: Back in the Game (Carefully) With the metals sold, I’ve tentatively re-entered positions in tech stocks and crypto, while still keeping a large balance ready. This gives me flexibility — I can lean into strength if the uptrend confirms, or jump out quickly if the market rolls over. The $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 are still holding above their 50-day moving averages, but just barely. Momentum is fragile. If we see a decisive close below the 50-day, I’ll hedge or trim risk immediately. Crypto, meanwhile, looks constructive in the medium term. The correction we’ve seen is healthy after such a strong run, and I continue to believe we’re in the early innings of the next liquidity-driven expansion phase. 📊 Technical Snapshot RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence on multiple indices suggests waning strength — a yellow flag, not a red one. MACD: Flattening but not yet bearish; could cross down if we lose support. Breadth: Still narrow — leadership concentrated in megacaps. Broader participation needed for a sustainable rally. VIX: Elevated around 20, showing tension under the surface but not outright fear. This setup often leads to sideways consolidation or a short-term pullback before the next leg higher. 🌐 Intermarket View Bonds are stabilizing after their recent yield bounce, while gold and silver look tired after their massive runs — confirming that the “early liquidity signal” phase may be ending. That, in turn, often precedes a rotation into growth and risk assets, exactly what we’re seeing hints of now. If that pattern holds, tech and crypto should lead the next phase once the market digests this overbought condition. 🧭 Outlook In the short term, I expect some choppy, sideways trading or even a bit of downside as momentum cools. But in the medium to long term, I remain bullish on tech and crypto, both of which stand to benefit most from the coming stage in the liquidity cycle — where easing conditions, falling real yields, and renewed risk appetite drive capital back into growth. For now, patience, balance, and discipline remain the watchwords. Have a great day everyone — and as always, feel free to like, comment, or copy if you enjoy following along with the strategy! Jonathan

3 Mentioned

SILVER

SPX500

NSDQ100

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