𝗧𝗼 𝗠𝗮𝘅𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺:
I've been through multiple ups and downs in the crypto markets. I've taken profits of over 5000% in ADA, over 3000% in ETH, over 1000% in HBAR and XRP and recently 1100% in Zcash. Yet this is NOT a post to gloat, as I've made some realised losses along the way. However, the 8 year experience has taught me when to buy to maximise profit. Now this is not a "Trust me Bro" post, and crypto is inherently risky. You should only invest what you can afford to lose. However, I do believe there is maximal opportunity on a lot of coins right now.
The title of this post sounds obvious, but what if I told you that most of the investors that are here in the euphoric parts of the market are not even active when we are at our lows. In fact, the majority of the buying masses don't even begin to buy until coins have run more than 50% towards their highs, and even then the trend is exponential as coins rise to their highs.
This makes a huge difference. If a coin bottoms at $10, and tops at $100, the majority will buy above $50, and an even larger majority above $80. I get it, collective fomo and euphoria drives this market, and fear and FUD drives on the opposite side, but what needs to be understood is how much downside risk there is compared to the upside risk. We can look at certain metrics to gain an idea.
𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉 𝑩𝑻𝑪:
⚙️Bitcoin has tagged miner cost which has acted as bottom support on the higher time frame for over a decade. To coincide with this, Bitcoin RSI has just curled up from the lowest level since the last two bear market lows in 2019 and 2022.
⚙️Bitcoin holders in an unrealised loss has crept up to almost the same levels as the same periods aforementioned.
⚙️The Mayer Multiple sits around 0.72, meaning Bitcoin is trading roughly 28% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, readings around this level have appeared near major market bottoms, suggesting that much of the excess from the previous rally has already been flushed out and that these conditions have often represented strong long term buy or accumulation zones.
𝑭𝒐𝒓 𝑨𝒍𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒔:
⚙️ The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has just bottomed off of lows of 9, very similar levels to 2022 and 2019 lows in the market.
⚙️ OTHERS/BTC shows a refusal of price to go below HTF bottoming channel suggesting best value.
⚙️ RTY remains in it's range highs, despite war in Iran. RTY strength has always correlated to altcoin strength (eventually), perhaps it will take RTY breaking out to over 2800 before we see strong alt movements.
⚙️ The 200 Day SMA Metric: The percentage of altcoins trading above their 200 day Simple Moving Average (SMA). In deep bear markets this often drops below 5%. When nearly every coin is "broken" technically, the market is usually in a state of maximum surrender which is historically a high-probability reversal zone. The current reading for the percentage of cryptocurrencies trading above their 200 day SMA is approximately 6.7%.
⚙️ Social Volume: Using tools like Santiment or LunarCrush, "Altseason" mentions are hitting multi-year lows.
⚙️ Google trends also shows a flatlining.
⚙️BTC dominance is currently testing a major historical resistance level around 58 to 60%. Historically, this is the "ceiling" where Bitcoin usually runs out of steam and investors start rotating their profits into Ethereum and other altcoins. If BTC.D fails to break above 60% and starts to slide, that is the primary "green light" for an altcoin rally.
⚙️ Stablecoin dominance is high historically, at a reversal zone where risk-off stops and risk-on begins.
The "Ghost Town" Effect is very real! When social media engagement for altcoin projects collapses and the general sentiment is "altcoins are dead," the bottom is usually near. Smart money accumulates in silence; retail buys in the noise.
There's a lot of posturing by bears by claiming that these kind of bullish thoughts or posts are "hopium" or "cope." I counter these claims, and say that I am only presenting forth objective and factual information based on charts and indicators. Information that is very similar to the times in which I bought my aforementioned coins to make maximal multi-thousand percent profits.
This post does not serve as a prediction, as past performance does not necessarily dictate future results. However, all the things that I look for when wanting to see the bottom of a market are all lining up.
Also, we see major negative narratives corresponding with bear market lows. We are clearly in that narrative now, another one was Covid where a quick V bottom recovery formed.
Thanks for reading.
$BTC$ETH$SOL$XRP$NSDQ100... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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Wed Aug 12 2026 02:19:07 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
