End of month update
Not the best month as portfolio dips and erases YTD gains
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to around 4.2% on Monday, marking its second consecutive decline as investors sought safe-haven assets amid growing concerns over the US economic outlook and the impact of escalating trade tensions.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries and reportedly urged his advisers to take a more aggressive stance on trade policies.
Markets fear that these moves could trigger retaliation from key trading partners, fuel inflation, and slow economic growth.
The yield is currently sitting just below the 200-day MA, and if recessions fears materialise, 3.5% could be the next downside target.
Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% from 20%, said it expects three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve beginning in July, and reduced its GDP growth view to 1.5% from 2% for 2025.
Bond ETFs and property should benefit from declining rates, and this continues to be the theme of this portfolio.
A few x2 leveraged long trades on NTLA have proven unfortunate as the company cancelled one of its seemingly promising developments and slimmed down the pipeline.... Show More
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