Victor Pedersen @Miyoshi: "Hi everyone, A couple of weeks..."

Denmark

Hi everyone, A couple of weeks ago, I pointed out the irrationality of investors flipping their portfolios upside down to adjust to geopolitical friction. Specifically, selling off high-conviction equities to go "all in" on energy or commodities. The fact that the market has just made a complete U-turn proves exactly how dangerous it is to chase the mood of the day. Sentiment shifts fast, and if you aren't already positioned for it, you’re just exit liquidity for those of us with a plan. Because the market has rallied so aggressively, despite the persistent underlying macro problems the world is still facing, I have decided to lock in gains from several recent tactical trades. I bought heavily during the dip when fear was high, and with the $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) looking irrational again, it is time to return to my original start-of-year allocation. 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗹 I have rebalanced the portfolio to a roughly 50/50 equity-bond split. This returns us to our original Barbell Strategy allocation. • The Cash/Bond Side: We have replenished our "mountain" of short-term bonds. This ensures we are paid a solid yield to wait while maintaining the liquidity needed to strike when the next dip occurs. • The Equity Side: We remain exposed to our high-conviction growth names, but with the insurance of our bond floor firmly back in place. 𝗥𝗼𝗸𝘂 Roku recently crossed the 100 million streaming households milestone, which is a massive testament to their platform's dominance. While the market remains fixated on short-term ad-spend fluctuations, I’ve always been bullish on Roku’s ability to monetize its massive user base. The market still has some catching up to do to reflect the true value of this ecosystem as it continues to reach new scale milestones. 𝗡𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗼 & 𝗦𝗼𝗻𝘆 I am transitioning our Nintendo position from the NTDOY ADR to the primary Tokyo listing $7974.T (Nintendo Co. Ltd.) that was recently added by eToro. This is a strategic move for three reasons: 1. Cost: It removes ADR service fees. 2. Liquidity: It provides better execution in the primary market, with lower spreads. 3. Currency: It gives us direct exposure to a potential recovery in the Japanese Yen. It is a more efficient way to hold the House of Mario for the long term. I am looking to make a similar move for $SONY (Sony Group Corp.-ADR) though it is less urgent. Unlike Nintendo’s "unsponsored" ADR, Sony’s US listing is a Sponsored ADR, which carries fewer overhead complexities. 𝗨𝗯𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁 Nothing new to report here, except that the company is making all the right moves. The market hasn't noticed yet, but they will. The recent Black Flag Resynced showcase received a very positive reception, and The Division Resurgence has seen an excellent start in the mobile market. These recurring mobile revenues are currently completely unaccounted for in the stock valuation. Expect a quiet period for $UBI.PA (Ubisoft Entertainment SA) until the next earnings call on May 20th. 𝗪𝗿𝗮𝗽 𝗨𝗽 I do not have a preference for where the market heads next; our Barbell Strategy is designed to find merits in both directions. If we go higher, our 50% equity exposure thrives. If we drop, our 50% bond cushion protects us and gives us the "dry powder" to buy the fear. The volatility is likely to continue for the remainder of the year. I do not view the recent market dip as the definitive "midterm drop" as there is a strong chance that will occur later. We are currently in what I call the "Spring Melt-Up" phase, which often makes the months leading up to the midterms all the more risky. Thank you for copying.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.