Thomas Roddy @ThomasRoddy: "📣 Portfolio November Note Hi all..."

France

📣 Portfolio November Note Hi all :) Here’s the latest on how things are shaping up for the portfolio as we close November what’s happening in the world, what that means our positioning, and why I believe we remain well placed. 🌍 Macro Backdrop & Market Signals • Global growth forecasts got a modest upgrade recently: 2025–2027 global GDP growth projections were revised slightly higher, reflecting improved growth prospects in China and some stabilization in trade flows. • Inflation remains sticky in many parts of the world, the latest OECD data sw headline inflation across advanced economies was still around 4.2% in September 2025. • In Europe, consensus is for modest growth in 2025–2027: the EU and euro area are forecast to grow around 1.3–1.5% annually, with inflation drifting toward target over the medium term. • That said, there are warning signs: in Germany, business sentiment unexpectedly fell in November, with the Ifo index dropping, a sign that growth may remain fragile in major European economies. • On the other hand, some sectors are seeing renewed investor interest. Silver, for example, has recently outperformed gold, a trend that could reflect rising demand for alternative stores of value amid macro uncertainty. Financial Content What this means for us: the macro environment remains mixed. moderate growth potential but with elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. That makes our low-beta + value-tilted + momentum-aware framework particularly relevant. We are not chasing bubbles; we aim to preserve capital, capture value, and ride legitimate upside when momentum emerges. ✅ Why Our Portfolio Setup Still Makes Sense • Given sticky inflation and uncertain growth, defensive, lower-beta holdings provide a buffer against volatility. Our emphasis on disciplined value and low-vol names helps protect downside while avoiding over-exposed high-beta/ speculative assets. • The relatively soft growth outlook across Europe and global markets strengthens the case for income- and value-oriented stocks, which tend to outperform when growth is subdued and volatility is elevated. • With global market sentiment still fragile, momentum overlay gives optionality. It allows us to participate in upside. but only in names that already show strength and meet our risk criteria. That avoids chasing hype blindly. • Recent swings in commodities (e.g silver strength) show how alternative exposures can play a role, but only if balanced carefully alongside core holdings. Our diversified approach gives us flexibility with with less concentration risk. 🔄 What I’m Watching & Potential Adjustments • I’ll monitor European economic data and business confidence surveys closely. If the softness continues, I may increase allocation toward defensive/value sectors for capital preservation. • If inflation and interest-rate pressures persist globally, dividend-yielding, low-volatility names will likely outperform. which suits our framework. • I’m watching precious-metals and safe-haven assets like silver and selected commodities as potential hedges or tactical plays, but only as a small satellite allocation. • I remain cautious on speculative sectors (especially high-beta tech or overly hyped growth), until momentum confirms value and risk remains controlled. ________________________________________ 🔮 Outlook The next few quarters likely won’t be a full-blown bull marke, but they offer fertile ground for disciplined, factor-aware investing. With inflation and growth headwinds, volatility may rise. That makes value, low-beta, and stable-yielding stocks more attractive. Our portfolio, oriented around those principles, is well positioned to deliver steady, risk-adjusted returns rather than chasing volatile jumps. If anything changes materially (macro shock, new sectoral trend, interest-rate shift), I’ll review and adapt. But for now, the tilts remain appropriate. Thanks for your trust and continued faith in the process :) $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $SLV (iShares Silver Trust)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

3 Mentioned

SPX500

SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)

NSDQ100

NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry)

SLV

iShares Silver Trust

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