Simon Solbjørg @AliasCryptus: "Market – and portfolio update: The..."

Norway

Market – and portfolio update: The month of September are coming to a close and our greatest assets for the moth got to be $SILVER (up 16 %), $GOLD (up 9 %), and our various miners $SBSW (Sibanye Stillwater Ltd-ADR) (up 47 %), $AG (First Majestic Silver Corp) (up 32 %) and the junior mining ETF, $GDXJ (VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF) (up 20 %). I have a strong position on precious metals and its miners, and those did offset the sub optimal performance of most crypto assets. Especially ETH took a dive, most probably consolidating the break above 4000 USD before it goes further. My portfolio is up about 4,3 % for the month of September, and 25,5 % YTD. I am of course pleased about that, but I am also a bit surprised that my crypto positions haven’t done better thus far. $BTC is on the brink of deciding whether or not it will break down or break up from its wedge pattern going back to the cycle peak of November 2021. I believe a break down will be the end of this bull market, and I consider the chance of that to be less than 30 %. I do inform my decisions on history, macro and technical analysis while I also do my best to diversify my investments towards several uncorrelated assets. The historic view is why I am a bit concerned about crypto right now. I have been expecting an alt-coin rally, but what we have got until now have not been what we’ve had in 2017 or 2021. The run up in the price of bitcoin have too been quite relaxed compared to previous bull runs. If we consider the mining cycle, every year after the halving bitcoin made a parabolic jump – resulting in a bubble and a massive decline followed for a whole year. The crypto winter as they call it, have lasted almost a full year. The last one was in 2022, 2018 prior to that, and 2014 before that. What about 2026? The thing is, we have not had a parabolic run up at all compared to previous cycles! Should we then expect a bust? I am not so sure, but I know that this cycle have been very different from previous cycles. Conclusion Precious metals are in a bull market, and the miners are sky rocketing almost every day the market is open! The dollar (DXY-index) is not so strong, and I believe a continuing weak dollar will add fuel to everything from gold and silver to emerging markets. I am somewhat concerned about the missing parabolic rise in crypto – especially as we are entering the expected later stages of the bull market. Will we see an extended cycle? Or perhaps a much shorter bear market? Did the ETF’s change the dynamic completely? This is an open question. I believe the conclusion will be revealed next month. The wedge pattern is closing in. My guess is that we will have a very volatile exit, probably with a violent fake break too.