The global market selloff and rising geopolitical tension around Iran have again increased pressure on risk assets. Yet the reaction of the crypto market has been unexpectedly calm: Bitcoin only dipped briefly and then stabilized. If the situation were truly as fragile as feared, crypto — the most speculative segment of the market — would likely have fallen much harder than most other assets.
This indirectly suggests that the main wave of selling may have already occurred earlier. A large share of weak holders was flushed out during the previous correction, so even negative news now tends to be absorbed quickly, with dips bought almost immediately.
Most likely the market will spend some time trading sideways. The bottom may already be in place, or the market may still deliver one final flush lower followed by a rapid rebound. The open question is whether Bitcoin can recover from the shock faster than other risk-on assets.... Show More
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