Daniel Dos Santos @Boon91280: "🌍⚠️ Middle East escalation: what..."

France

🌍⚠️ Middle East escalation: what could it mean for markets this week? The weekend saw a sharp rise in tensions between Israel, the United States, and Iran. The key chokepoint remains the Strait of Hormuz (≈20% of global oil flows). 👉 Markets are entering a classic geopolitical risk-off phase, with potential energy-driven inflation if tensions persist. ⸻ 📉 Likely market reaction 🛢️ Oil ↑ 🥇 Gold ↑ 💵 U.S. dollar ↑ 📉 Equities ↓ (especially growth) 📊 U.S. Treasuries ↑ ₿ Crypto ↓ short term ⸻ 🧭 Current exposure in my portfolio In this environment, some of my holdings naturally act as geopolitical hedges: 🛢️ Energy / Oil & services $PBR (Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras-ADR) $TTE.PA (TotalEnergies SE) $SHEL (Shell PLC (ADR)) $SLB (SLB Ltd) $CVX.US (Chevron) • energy transition related: $IQQH.DE (iShares Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF) $ZPDE.DE (SS SPDR S&P U.S. ENERGY SELECT SECTOR UCITS ETF) 👉 Historically: outperformance during oil shocks ⸻ 🥇 Gold / real assets $WGLD.L (WisdomTree Core Physical Gold) 👉 Classic safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises and energy inflation ⸻ 🛡️ Defense $LMT (Lockheed Martin Corporation) $AIR.PA (AIRBUS SE) $AM.PA (Dassault Aviation SA) $WDEF.L (WisdomTree Europe Defence UCITS ETF) 👉 Structural rise in defense spending during global instability phases ⸻ ⚠️ Potential pressure zones ✈️ Airlines / transport 📱 Growth tech 🧱 Consumer discretionary ⸻ ₿ Crypto perspective As seen during: Ukraine 2022 Iran–Israel tensions 2024 BTC initially behaves as a risk asset (24/7 liquidity). ➡️ frequent initial sell-off ➡️ stabilization if conflict remains contained ⸻ 🧠 My strategy ✔️ No panic selling on long-term positions ✔️ Core portfolio unchanged ✔️ My energy / gold / defense exposure acts as a volatility buffer Geopolitical crises create volatility, but rarely cause lasting market destruction. ⸻ The coming days will mainly depend on: • developments around Hormuz • oil prices • inflation expectations Stay disciplined.