Wesley Nolte @Wesl3y: "𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 (𝟮𝟭 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲) 𝙏𝙇;𝘿𝙍 ‣..."

United Kingdom

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 (𝟮𝟭 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲) 𝙏𝙇;𝘿𝙍 ‣ The Iran war keeps flipping on and off again. Each rumour of a deal sends oil down and equities up. Each re-escalation does the reverse. Some weeks we get both ‣ The US 30Y bond yield hit its highest level since 2007, triggering a three-day equity selloff before Wednesday's relief rally ‣ April CPI stayed sticky, and fed funds futures now price less than a 10% chance of any cut this year ‣ Powell's chair term ended on May 15 ‣ Nvidia beat after the close with monster numbers and Huang calling demand "parabolic" ‣ Big SaaS is still down 30-35% YTD, though the sector started rebounding last week 𝙏𝙬𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙫𝙚 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙙. 𝙏𝙬𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚𝙣'𝙩 The two changes: bond yields broke higher with the 30Y hitting levels not seen since 2007, putting real pressure on equity valuations. And Powell's chair term ended, adding fresh uncertainty just as the bond market pushes back on the rate cut narrative. The two constants: inflation is sticky enough that futures price less than a 10% chance of any cut this year. And SaaS, the layer where most enterprise AI actually gets deployed, is still deeply discounted. $NOW (ServiceNow Inc), $CRM (Salesforce Inc) and $ADBE (Adobe Systems Inc) are all down 30-35% YTD even after last week's bounce. The bear case says AI agents replace SaaS. Cloud was supposed to kill the on-prem giants too. Instead, they rebuilt on cloud and came out bigger. Enterprises still need centralised data, security, admin, and certifications, and the SaaS incumbents are already weaving AI into all of it. 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗰𝘁 is where I'm staying focused. 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙢𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙨 $DDOG (Datadog Inc) posted a banger. Revenue crossed $ 1B for the first time, EPS smashed estimates, and they raised full-year guidance. The stock gapped up over 30% on the print. I halved my position into that strength to lock in profits. $TTD (Trade Desk Inc) has been telling the same story for six straight quarters: revenue growth has decelerated from 25% to 12%, and Q2 guidance implies just 8%. Margins are compressing, brokers are downgrading, and retail media is eating their open-web business. I’m out. Between those two moves I'm holding more cash than usual, ready to deploy if the Iran headlines or bond market hand us another pullback. Stay invested. Stay diversified. Stay patient.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.