Tomas Vasseur
France
6m
📈 Bitcoin: Are We Entering a Historic Window for 2025? The crypto market is entering a decisive phase. Multiple forces—shrinking supply, growing institutional demand, macro shifts, and historical patterns—are aligning. For investors, the next 12 months may represent one of the last major opportunities to ride a full Bitcoin cycle within a regulated environment. 🔄 1. Halving: Engine of Built-In Scarcity On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin’s block reward was cut in half to 3.125 BTC. This programmed supply reduction has historically triggered 12–18 months of bullish momentum. If the pattern repeats, a new peak could emerge between April and October 2025—this time with far more institutional weight behind it. 🏦 2. Institutional Surge: ETFs Reshape Demand Since January, spot Bitcoin ETFs from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted over $15 billion in inflows. These products open the door to traditional players—pension funds, family offices—within a regulated framework. A growing share of BTC supply is now locked in custody, creating lasting upward pressure. For the first time, institutional demand structurally outweighs new supply. 🌐 3. Macro Backdrop: Liquidity Could Return With inflation cooling, markets are anticipating lower interest rates and potentially renewed monetary easing. A softer dollar and looser conditions have historically fueled crypto rallies. While not guaranteed, the outlook for risk assets—including BTC—is becoming increasingly supportive. 📊 4. Historical Patterns: The Cycle Rhymes Again Bitcoin’s past cycles have followed a familiar rhythm: bottom → breakout → euphoria → peak. From 2015 to 2017: +2,150%. From 2018 to 2021: +1,800%. The 2022 low (~$15,500) may already be behind us. With institutional inflows and reduced float, a temporary overshoot toward $120k–$150k is plausible. Still, nothing is certain—regulatory shocks or macro stress could derail the trend. 🎯 Strategic Outlook: Watch the Alignment Closely Today’s conditions are rare: engineered scarcity, surging institutional flows, and a potentially looser macro environment. For rational investors, 2024–2025 may be the last chance to participate in a full “early BTC-style” cycle under regulatory clarity. 🟢 Conviction: Strong. We maintain our exposure, with plans to gradually exit positions during the second half of 2025.
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