Xuan Lap Tran @leonard157: "𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗿𝘀..."

Australia

𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 “𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄” 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 🤷‍♂️📉📈 One of the healthiest investing habits is accepting a simple truth: 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆. Even the best—people with huge research teams, data feeds, and decades of experience—still talk like this: 💬 Warren Buffett: “𝗜 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗼… 𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄… 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿.” 🧠 💬 Howard Marks: “𝗡𝗼 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝘀… 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗿𝗲… 𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁’𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.” 🎯 💬 Seth Klarman: “𝗜𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗻𝗼 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗱𝗼… 𝘁𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝘄𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲.” ⏳ That mindset matters because leadership rotates 🔄 📌 Real research backs this up: A U.S. Office of Financial Research working paper finds publicly reporting hedge funds show 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗼𝗻𝘀, and 𝗻𝗼 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘂𝗺/𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗼𝗻𝘀. 📄 S&P’s SPIVA Persistence Scorecards repeatedly show that only a 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗼𝗽-𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗼𝗽-𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 in later periods. 🧾 So if the pros don’t pretend to know the next 6–12 months… why should we? 😅 Instead of chasing “𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗻𝗼𝘄,” I prefer a repeatable process ✅ • 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗳𝘆 (avoid one-theme portfolios) • 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 (position size > prediction) • 𝗿𝗲𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 when risk drifts (not when headlines scream) • 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 on staying in the game Question for you: 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗳𝗼𝗿 “𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆”… 𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲? $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $DJ30 ɴᴏᴛ ꜰɪɴᴀɴᴄɪᴀʟ ᴀᴅᴠɪᴄᴇ. ᴘᴀꜱᴛ ᴘᴇʀꜰᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ≠ ꜰᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇꜱᴜʟᴛꜱ. ᴄᴀᴘɪᴛᴀʟ ᴀᴛ ʀɪꜱᴋ.

3 Mentioned

SPX500

NSDQ100

DJ30

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