Georgios Fatouros @GeorgeFatouros: "📊 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 & 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼..."

Greece

📊 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 & 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗦𝗻𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘁 – 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 February closed with our portfolio at an 𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵, returning 𝙘𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚 𝙩𝙤 +𝟰% for the month — bringing 𝗬𝗧𝗗 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 +𝟭𝟳.𝟲%, while $SPX500 delivered roughly 𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙪𝙨 𝟭% in February and is near flat YTD. That said, February was 𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗽𝘆 in practice. Most trading days produced up-and-down movement with no clear trend, as investors remained visibly uncertain about the impact of AI on software business models. That narrative weighed heavily on many technology names and kept the broader market on edge throughout the month. 𝗔 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 I've noticed many of you joined this month — welcome. I want to share something worth understanding early. A portfolio's 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 are not a preview of what you'll experience from the moment you copy. Markets don't reset to favorable conditions when a new copier joins. You may copy on a day the portfolio is at an all-time high, which means short-term drawdowns are entirely possible, and in fact, statistically likely at some point. 𝗡𝗼 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗼𝗻𝗲. Not this one. Not any. Fluctuation is not a flaw in the strategy. It's a feature of equity markets. The question is whether you have the time horizon and patience to let the process work. If you're here expecting consistent short-term gains, I'd encourage you to reconsider. If you're here with a 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗺𝘂𝗺 𝟯-𝘁𝗼-𝟲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 — enough time for the strategy to breathe and show what it can do then you're in the right place. Patience isn't passive. It's part of successful investing. 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗦𝗻𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘁: 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗪𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱 The macro backdrop entering March is best described as 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲-𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁. A few key reads: • 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱 at 3.5–3.75%, characterizing policy as near neutral. Core PCE remains around 3% y/y, and tariff-driven price pressures haven't fully cleared. Markets are pricing in just one or two additional 25bp cuts through 2026 — not a cutting cycle, a patience cycle. • 𝗟𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱: Unemployment at 4.4% with wage growth near 3.8% y/y — not deteriorating, but not strong enough to force the Fed's hand either way. • 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿: Euro area inflation near 1.7% and returning toward target, with policy more settled. Defense and infrastructure spending remain structural tailwinds. • 𝗔𝗜 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘅 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹: Hyperscaler buildouts continue with large data center projects announced, grid operators flagging power demand concerns. The AI story is no longer monolithic — it's a 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆. Hardware, memory, and infrastructure benefit. Software exposed to AI disruption faces real business model questions. • 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲: Long-duration Treasuries face structural supply/demand headwinds. Fiscal deficits and issuance volumes are keeping term premia elevated. Equities remain preferred over long bonds in this environment. Overall: constructive on equities with selective positioning. Uncertainty is elevated, but not indiscriminate risk-off. Next week we will rebalance the portfolio based on the latest signals from our AI system. As always, I'll share the rationale behind any changes. — @GeorgeFatouros

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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GeorgeFatouros

Georgios Fatouros

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