michael eraklis kashioulis
United Kingdom
9 months ago
Hello Copiers As we have come to the end of October we finish at -1.20%. It has been an interesting month but the key focus I want to highlight in this post is around the UK's recent budget and how that may affect the UK portion of the portfolio. We have various UK positions in banks, housebuilders, leisure and travel, so have a solid amount of exposure to the region. New forecasts show increased demand which will push spending up whilst adding pressure to inflation. Since the budget we have seen the FTSE struggle as investors digest what Reeves announced alongside a sell-off in UK government bonds. At least it is safe to say it hasn't been a Liz Truss-level disaster. With the rise in National Insurance set to add pressure to UK employers, we shall see how our retail-related stocks move in the months ahead. With several pubs in our portfolio, I don't think the small reduction in draught beer will outweigh the employee costs from NI and the increase in minimum wage they are about to face in the period ahead. Rates are now expected to stay higher for longer and the initial thoughts on this is seeing pressure on housebuilders which we only have some exposure to, but on the flip side, our bank stocks push higher on that same expectation. However, at the moment I find there to be a lot of knee-jerk reactions, and as such I want to see how things play out in the coming months before making any significant changes to the portfolio based on this budget alone. I still plan to increase housebuilder exposure but waiting for some key players to hit some key technical points before making my move. Michael
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