Michael Jensen @GenesisGains: "Hello everyone Two things are..."

Denmark

Hello everyone Two things are going on right now — and the market is happily ignoring both. First, geopolitics. Comments from Marco Rubio made one thing pretty clear: the U.S. is not going to accept a scenario where Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran decides who passes and who doesn’t, that’s control over a massive chunk of global energy. That’s not a side issue — that’s a problem. So either this gets resolved diplomatically… or it doesn’t. And if it doesn’t, the next step is pretty obvious. Now the second part — and this is where it gets interesting for markets. This entire rally has basically been built on one idea: AI fixes everything. That’s been the story behind the move, especially in names like $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) and the whole semiconductor space. But now we’re starting to see a few cracks. OpenAI — one of the key pillars of that story — is not exactly delivering what people had hoped for. Growth isn’t as strong as expected, revenues are lagging, and more importantly, there are questions around whether all the planned spending can actually be financed. And that matters… because there’s a whole chain connected to it. Think about it: $ORCL (Oracle Corporation) building capacity Huge data center investments Private credit funding a lot of this expansion Chip demand expectations tied directly to all of the above If that demand slows even a little, it doesn’t just hit one company — it hits the entire setup. And at the same time, valuations are already stretched. Semis trading around 60x earnings… that only works if everything keeps going perfectly. No hiccups allowed. Now add positioning on top: A few mega caps are doing most of the work The broader market isn’t really participating Volume is extremely thin So yes, indices look strong… but underneath, it’s not exactly rock solid. And then you still have the geopolitical layer sitting on top of all of this. Where does that leave us? $NSDQ100 27,200 $SPX500 : 7,165 We’re basically holding levels — waiting for the next catalyst. But the reality is, the market is still pricing in a “perfect scenario”: AI keeps delivering Growth justifies valuations Geopolitics stays contained That’s a lot of things needing to go right at the same time. Let’s see how long that lasts.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.