ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 10 ɴᴏᴠᴇᴍʙᴇʀ 2025
Retail investors have been outperforming professionals lately, an inversion of the usual order that rarely ends well.
www.ft.com/content/094ebfb0-bbd8-42c4-9e93-0116d1f896de
When amateur traders consistently beat the market, it tends to signal speculative excess. In the South Sea Bubble of 1720, the least informed investors made the most money early on, before losing it all. The late-1990s tech boom followed the same pattern: retail investors’ early success drew in more buyers, pushed prices higher, and detached markets from fundamentals before a sharp correction brought them back to earth.
Recent ETF data show U.S. and Korean retail portfolios outperforming the broader market, while short sellers — the “smart money” — have been losing.
www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/dumb-money-triumphant
This pattern, where the crowd triumphs and professionals retreat, has often marked late-cycle euphoria. Historically, short sellers profit at retail investors’ expense by exploiting their mistakes, and most retail investors ultimately underperform the index.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3637649www.virtus.com/assets/files/35y/minds-over-markets_5500.pdf
Another red flag lies in the performance of retail-broker shares. Robinhood has surged more than fifteen-fold in two years, while Interactive Brokers has tripled.
www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/brokers-and-bubbles
What, then, should investors do?
Betting against momentum can be costly, and the markets do not yet appear to be in a fully fledged bubble. Still, with retail investors overwhelmingly bullish on the U.S., it may be prudent to look elsewhere, at sectors and regions untouched by speculative fever.
www.etoro.com/news-and-analysis/etoro-updates/retail-investors-pivot-back-to-us-amid-renewed-market-confidence/
In the long run, markets will continue to reward those willing to buy what others shun.
𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲
YTD +31.7%
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Danske Bank is making way for AXA.
𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁
www.triangulacapital.com
𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.... Show More
It’s important to acknowledge that tech stocks have become frothy and that stocks like those from quantum and nuclear, which aren’t going to be anywhere profitable soon, have become very expensive and unsustainable. It’s also important to be honest as investors whether the outperformance was due to alpha... Show More
Great as always! How do you see your current stock picks performing when the cycle turns, and do you have any preplans/scenarios on how you change your position to eg cash/defensive stocks?... Show More
@triangulacapital Thanks for sharing this, really interesting read! Crazy how history keeps repeating itself in the markets. Appreciate the way you break it down and back it with solid data.... Show More
Interesting read. And makes sense. Sometime we forget that institutions have a mandate to deliver returns on a risk adjusted basis. Sometimes, this frame just cannot compete with YOLO trades that tend to work out well in exhuberant markets.
... there's this passage from ''Devil Take The... Show More
porto matices y un checklist simple para no caer en narrativas extremas.
Matices
Que el retail bata al mercado puede ser mezcla de concentración en $BTC / tema IA y ETFs temáticos, no necesariamente burbuja general.
Los cortos pierden en tramos de tendencia larga; no porque “sean tontos”, sino porque... Show More Translate
Hi Pietari, always enjoy reading your posts.
Quick question since your portfolio is financials and insurance heavy. I came across an interesting discussion by McAlvany financial talking about how the insurance industry "will spark the next global financial crisis and be the next bailout" (their... Show More
I've followed the top investors on Etoro for ideas about where to invest my money. It's paid off, while keeping in mind overall market sentiment, as well as my experience of market behaviour over the past 18 months.... Show More
Conversly The Professional investors such as Tom Hayes Cathie Woods Tom Lee ETC. who have followed the retail trend have had huge returns running with retail momentum! Whilst the other professionals have made none or worse!... Show More
La storia si ripete: mai nello stesso modo ma con delle variazioni che dipendono da tante cose come il contesto. Ottima riflessione. Grazie ... Show More Translate
Hi @triangulacapital ,
With all the global conflict and modernisation of military forces. Is there any reason why you are not looking at defence stocks like you have with the banks?
It seems like many countries are pouring trillions collectively into warships, planes, submarines and drone/anti-drone... Show More
Thank you Pietari. Very interesting analysis and i fully agree. I once was the retail lemming too and it took some time to understand how this markets work. Still i am not good in sidelining.
Copytrading you was the best financial decision here on etoro. Keep up the great work! ... Show More
3rd Friday of the month Call premium expires retail investors hold record amount . Institutional will want them to expire worthless. Will we see chop no gains till then the a rally to the end of year?... Show More
Hei Pietari ja kiitokset Sijoituskästiin menemisestä, tunnettuutesi kasvoi nuorten suomalaisten sijoittajien keskuudessa paljon!
Voiko täällä kysyä suomalaisena sijoittajana, teetkö kauppoja vain ei-CFD-tuotteilla? Ostot ja myynnit taitavat mennä suomalaisittain hankalammin eli eivät noudata FIFO-periaatetta?... Show More Translate
2 replies
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Wed Dec 10 2025 19:58:48 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
