hugomanenti95 @hugomanenti95: "Hi everyone, Just wanted to give..."

Portugal

Hi everyone, Just wanted to give you an update as the month comes to a close. 𝗜. 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 The market has felt pretty off recently, entirely driven by a small subset of stocks (mainly AI related, but not only). Those continue to enjoy incredible momentum – sometimes regardless of fundamentals and valuations. On the other hand, stocks which do not enjoy positive momentum go from bad to worse. This kind of bubbly behaviour is often indicative of a top. In addition, valuations and technical indicators look pretty stretched to me. It is not needed but this is the kind of setup where a catalyst could kickstart a decent correction. It could be another month of hotter than expected inflation data, hawkish Fed comments, geopolitics, or simply a mechanical unwind of current extreme positioning. While it is by no means guaranteed, if it does indeed happen, then we should welcome it as an opportunity to potentially add more cash, reposition the portfolio, and benefit from our hedges. The market has gone up vertically since October and could benefit from a breather, as well as some sector and factor rotation. 𝗜𝗜. 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 While this highly concentrated and momentum-driven market is bad news for our portfolio (given our current value-driven positioning), we’ve had quite a few earnings wins. This allows us to outperform small cap and equal weight benchmarks, and hold our own against the $SPX500 . It also creates opportunities for patient investors such as ourselves. In addition, our monetary inflation hedges - $BTC and $ETH more so than $GOLD - have provided us with a nice uncorrelated return. It was time! We are actually now back to our all-time highs, or almost. This is an opportunity for me to say a big 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝘆𝗼𝘂 to all of you who suffered the 2022 drawdown and did not lose trust. Patience is finally rewarded! 𝗪𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗽𝗵𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬. If anyone is still in red, then this is likely the result of past synchronisation issues (or failing to copy open trades), for which I am sorry. This was / is unfortunately outside of my control... but do not despair, we'll get there! The good news is that the recent copytrading update fixed all synchronisation issues. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 / 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 A slightly strange start of the year, but we are generating strong returns and certainly won't complain about that! Let's see how things go from there. The micro / fundamentals for our companies remain solid. The second half of the year is expected to see a reacceleration in industrial activity, which would be immensely beneficial to our portfolio - so far, both individual companies’ guidance and macro indicators point to that. There is still an abundance of risk - trader euphoria, sticky service inflation, geopolitics, and US politics to name a few. But so far, so good, and I remain optimistic for the medium term. Again, a big thank you to all of you, and please let me know if any questions. Best regards, Hugo Bonus poll - are we about to get a correction (10 to 20% pullback)?

Nope - up, up, up

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Yes, sentiment went too far

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No idea - show me the results

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