Wesl3y @Wesl3y: "📜 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 The panic that..."

United Kingdom

📜 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 The panic that shook the market a little under a month ago has just about been forgotten. But the market landscape has shifted a little - semis are still significantly off their highs, whilst safer parts of the market e.g. utilities and real estate, have soared. At the same time falling inflation, and a stronger US economy have lifted smaller companies. Relevant beneficiaries in my portfolio have been: * $Z (Zillow Group Inc) - the US's largest real estate portal will be a massive beneficiary as rates ease * $SHOP (Shopify Inc.) - as rates drop consumers and businesses become more optimistic, and activities such as investing and purchasing increase * $PYPL (PayPal Holdings) - the stock price fell too far and although PayPal isn't the only game in town anymore it's still a big player Over in the UK, optimism has also been on the rise. Inflation has fallen faster than expected, and GDP growth is more resilient than thought. Our rates are expected to fall more slowly than in the US because our central bank is putting out fairly hawkish messaging, but the worst is clearly behind us. Our stock market is also incredibly cheap and I think we'll see many acquisitions in the coming years. This has already started and two of my UK stocks have benefitted from this i.e. * $HL (Hecla Mining Company) - they turned down an acquisition offer stating it was well below their worth but the stock still jumped significantly * $RMV.L (Rightmove PLC) - the UK equivalent of Zillow is one of the best-run businesses I've seen in a while and is incredibly profitable (even with high rates). The stock jumped 20% today on news of a bid to buy the business. I'm hoping they turn this down because the coming fall in rates will be great for their share price ____________________________________________________________________ There've also been some laggards in the portfolio i.e. 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗮𝗿 - solar stocks have been on a roller coaster ride for several reasons including: * They're incredibly rate-sensitive since solar projects are expensive and require debt, * Falling prices for some components mean lower revenue, and * Overstocked inventories meant a negative margin on those inventories. The tide will turn and CSIQ is one of the best operators in the business. 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 - we're about 50% through the 5-year WBD overhaul plan and it's been painful. The market is impatient but the company is actually ahead of its goals. They continue to eat through the mountain of debt but also have to contend with declining revenues for their linear TV division. It's a long, ugly road but they seem to be navigating it well. I still think this is a multi-bagger 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗸𝘀𝘄𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻 - another stock highly dependent on the economic cycle has a share price not seen since 2010! Revenue is at record levels and net income is near record levels despite high interest rates. The dividend yield is currently over 8%. The stock's price has been weighed down by a sluggish European market and fears of competition from China but as rates in major markets fall Volkswagen is likely to do very well from these undervalued levels. 👀 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 Rates are coming down around the world - that much is certain. Cyclical stocks (those dependent on the economic cycle) will do well as this happens. These are the same businesses hardest hit over the past 2 years. The rotation into these sectors has started but investors will want to see good numbers from these sectors (earnings) before going all in.

5 Mentioned

SHOP

PYPL

RMV.L