Jacobus Enslin
Jacobus Enslin
United Kingdom
๐™Š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™—๐™š๐™ง ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ โ€“ ๐™ˆ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™ช๐™ฅ๐™™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š ๐™‹๐™š๐™ง๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š โ€ข The portfolio returned 0.31% in October vs 2.27% for the SP500. โ€ข YTD the portfolio returned 45.60% vs the SP500 return of 16.30%. โ€ข The annualized return since inception of the portfolio is 24.33% vs 12.35% for the SP500. ๐™๐™ฅ๐™™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š๐™จ $BFIT.NV (Basic-Fit N.V) released their Q3 results this past month. Year-to-date they have opened about 50% less clubs than last year (5% club growth), however their revenues are still increasing at a rate of 16% p/y. This is mainly due to their large base of non-mature clubs filling up with members. They added 218k members in Q3, which is 95% more than during the same period last year. This confirms the thesis that Bfit will be able to grow revenues at a mid-teens percentage for a good couple of years, even after slowing new club openings. Additionally, this incremental revenue growth comes at very high profit margins due to the high operating leverage the business has (the clubs are already built so there is almost no additional costs associated with new members signing up). Itโ€™s been 2 years since I started the position in Bfit. I believe 2026 will be the inflection point where the operating leverage of the business flips into gear leading to material free cash flow growth. I estimate 2026 FCF before expansion capex to be >โ‚ฌ250m. At a 12x-15x multiple this would put fair value between โ‚ฌ45-โ‚ฌ50 per share. Thesis and target price essentially remains the same as 2 years ago. I entered a new position in $ASPI. ASPI is comprised of a medical isotopes business and an enriched uranium (Haleu) business. The Haleu/uranium business (called QLE) is being spun out as a separate entity within the next couple of weeks. QLE already has a 10-year supply contract with Terrapower to supply haleu to their Natrium SMR. They also have an MOU with newly listed $FRMI (Fermi Inc) to build an enrichment plant on their planned 11GW campus. I believe QLE could be one of the first and largest commercial producers of Haleu in the West โ€“ a $38b market over the next decade. The QLE spinout is likely to be a large value unlock. Apart from the haleu business, the medical isotopes business of ASPI is starting commercial deliveries of their first isotopes (YT-176 & Si-28) in early 2026, and I believe this part of the business could generate ebitda of >$40m within the next 2 years and they are guiding for >$300m by 2030. The thesis is multifaceted with many regulatory, financing and operational/technological considerations. I have been following the company closely for the past 18 months and it seems evident that there is a lot of value that could be created here. ASPI as a whole trades at a market cap of $1b. Competitors in the haleu/uranium space trade at valuations above $3b. I think the QLE subsidiary should also trade in this ballpark. Then the medical isotopes business could also be worth $1-2b in the next 3-4 years. I think upside could be anywhere between 100% and 300%. This is a high-risk investment due to the execution risk present and thus the stock price will be very volatile, as it has been since being listed. I will thus keep the allocation in the single digit % range. Best regards Jacob
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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