Luca Meier @LucaMeier: "📊 Daily Portfolio Update Tuesday, May..."

Switzerland

📊 Daily Portfolio Update Tuesday, May 12, 2026 🌎 MACRO The Iran peace deal optimism that drove markets last Wednesday has evaporated. Trump declared the ceasefire "on life support" after Tehran rejected the U.S. proposal, calling the American terms unacceptable. $OIL rose over 3% in response, reversing much of the gains from last week. The macro setup is back to stagflation mode: elevated oil keeps inflation hot, April CPI data showed the largest annual increase in nearly three years, and the Fed is now widely expected to hold rates unchanged for an extended period. Higher real rates weigh on $GOLD despite it being an inflation hedge — and that dynamic hit the gold miners hard today. [1] All eyes are shifting to Beijing. Trump flies to China on Thursday for a two-day summit with President Xi Jinping, bringing a delegation of more than a dozen U.S. executives including Elon Musk, Tim Cook and Larry Fink. Trade, Iran and Taiwan are the headline issues. China holds structural leverage here — it is Iran's largest trading partner and top buyer of its oil, giving Beijing a potential mediating role in any Hormuz resolution. Markets are cautiously optimistic that the summit could at minimum stabilize U.S.-China trade relations, which have been fragile since last year's tariff wars. [2] 📈 PORTFOLIO Gold fell 1.5% to around $4,664 per ounce as fading Iran peace hopes pushed oil higher, stoking inflation and real rate fears. TD Securities' global commodity strategy head described gold as "responding" directly to the risk that central banks may be forced to hike to fight stagflation. [1] The leveraged gold miner ETFs felt the move acutely: NUGT dropped 6.3% and JNUG fell 6.2%. Individual miners followed in lockstep. $ETOR (eToro Group LTD) dropped 6.2% after reporting Q1 2026 earnings. CEO Yoni Assia appeared on CNBC to discuss the results, highlighting a significant drop in crypto trading volume as the primary headwind. Despite the near-term pressure, Assia said the company expects to see crypto prices recover toward all-time highs later this year, which would drive a recovery in trading activity. [3] The stock's reaction reflects the market's concern that the crypto volume slowdown is weighing on near-term revenue. 📋 TRADES Many $TRX (mainly staking rewards) positions were closed on May 8. The crypto had been held in tranches going back as far as 2021, with the oldest positions opened at a fraction of the current price. The combined exit at around $0.35 per token represented a substantial cumulative gain across the full position. The decision to close reflects profit-taking after a strong multi-year run, freeing up allocation ahead of what could be a volatile period for crypto broadly. SOURCES: [1] www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/gold-falls-as-fading-middle-east-peace-hopes-lift-dollar-oil.html [2] www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/trump-xi-china-trade-iran-taiwan.html [3] www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/12/we-expect-to-see-crypto-rise-back-near-all-time-highs-later-this-year-says-etoro-ceo.html

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.