Christian Schwarzer Velazquez
Market crash! πŸ“‰πŸ’₯ Lesson: what you DO NOT buy πŸš«πŸ’Έ is more important than what you DO add to your portfolio. βœ…πŸ’Ό The times you discard a stock are more important than the times you buy a new one. The number of drops (and opportunities that are appearing) in the market right now! I trade 5% of the time and dedicate 95% of the time to reading, studying companies, and reading balance sheets. To be an elite trader, you must learn to be extremely patient and conservative when the market requires it, and at the same time, extremely aggressive and trade as much as you can when opportunities arise. This is how we were able to take advantage of the April drops and go all-in with the liquidity we had to buy the best companies in the world. Since April, we have barely moved the portfolio, and if there have been movements, they have been strategic and aimed at selling to prepare for a possible drop or a pullback proportional to the entire rally we have experienced. We have reduced our position in $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) by 20%, a stock I still trust and believe will be one of the best investments of my entire life, but I must not marry any stock or company. Although I am positive about the company and expect growth and re-acceleration with the Robotaxi and the self-driving software, it is at valuation highs; 100% of the time the stock has marked a top at these valuations. Since I still trust in the re-acceleration, I predict that the multiple will contract, but not the stock price. On the other hand, we exquisitely reduced our $CELH (Celsius Holdings Inc.) position by 50% at $62, as we now see it at $42. We bought at $27, so at $62, I already saw little margin of safety. Despite being a company with a huge TAM and impressive expansion ahead, just like with $TSLA, the valuation and statistical advantage are a reality that I must not omit, which is why my analysis indicated it was time to strongly unload. I was not wrong: the drop has been brutal, and we have protected capital; now, the valuation has become much more reasonable, and with part of that capital, we have entered 30% lower. Furthermore, the sale of $CELH served to rotate capital into a company we welcome into the portfolio: $SE (Sea Ltd-ADR): The great giant of Southeast Asia. I know it very well, as we had $GRAB (Grab Holdings Ltd) in the portfolio, which we sold perfectly at $6.2 due to overvaluation. Both compete in the fintech segment, but $SE has 2 business legs that make it more diversified and, in my eyes, an excellent company: the Garena Gaming part, and especially Shopee, the benchmark E-commerce in Southeast Asia, the undisputed leader throughout the region. A highly diversified company with several business models, leader in e-commerce, competing with $GRAB in the fintech segment, and leader in the gaming segment. Taking advantage of the fact that Southeast Asia has a huge TAM, thanks to these countries undergoing a tremendous wave of digitalization in the coming years, $GRAB and $SE will be the main winners in this segment. Just as I saw more profitability and less risk in $GRAB than in $SE in April, the tables have now turned, and $GRAB shares have risen quite a bit, and $SE's have fallen, which is why I now see an opportunity in $SE. On the other hand, the discards: There have been many discards; despite barely moving the portfolio, I am constantly reading, tracking, and studying the companies I follow and new opportunities. These months I considered entering $RELY (Remitly Global Inc) $INPST or $DUOL (Duolingo). $CSU is very interesting but does not appear on eToro. Other companies like $ADBE (Adobe Systems Inc) $NVO (Novo-Nordisk A/S SPONS ADR) $UNH (UnitedHealth) $CRM (Salesforce Inc) are interesting, but less so due to their low potential return, turnarounds, and possible disruption in sight for some, or directly a performance issue. Many of them fell 30% this week; the market has been correcting and penalizing companies that, in my opinion, are excellent. I still have my doubts about $DUOL, but if Mr. Market offers it to me at a price aggressively discounting a lot of risk, it will be difficult to say no. Likewise, $RELY or $INPST.NV (InPost SA) are companies I follow closely and are of interest to me, and I am watching them; I do not rule out incorporating them, lots of tailwinds for both, good growth, and exquisite valuations right now, discounting a lot of risk that I believe will not materialize in these companies. The longer I am in the markets, the harder it is for me to incorporate a new position into the portfolio and prioritize it over increasing an existing one. This indicates maturity and extreme conviction; if I already have the 12 that I consider to be the best, I don't need more. Furthermore, I consider 6–12 to be the optimal diversification for a quality portfolio. For all these reasons, we have not entered any new company, but I do not rule out that one of the mentioned ones will soon be seen in the portfolio. I hope you liked my update, and if you want to benefit from everything I write, you can always copy me. We are already 9! Best regards, Christian $SPX500 $BTC $NSDQ100 $TSLA