Jeppe Kirk Bonde @JeppeKirkBonde: "Many investors are concerned about..."

United Arab Emirates

Many investors are concerned about whether AI will actually get good, a slowdown in the broader economy, the ability of the Fed to keep liquidity flowing, among other risk factors. While tariffs and geopolitical risks remain - these seem to get less attention. In the past week, the $SPX500, STOXX Europe 600, and Shanghai have each declined by 3%. Meanwhile Bitcoin and gold are down by 13% and 4% respectively. Bond prices are largely unchanged. It is 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 for stock markets to go up or down by such percentages in any given week. Over the past 100 years, 19% of weeks, saw prices up or down by 3% or more for the SP500. In that sense this relatively minor drop is getting significantly more attention today, than a similar drop would normally warrant. The markets go up by 10% and no one bats an eye. They decline by 5% and headlines scream as if it's the end of the world. Based on my analyses, the current 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲, compared to what the demand for AI services will actually be in a few years, based on how good AI will probably get in a few years. The 𝗯𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗼𝗸, with inflation going in the right direction although slowly, unemployment rates at reasonable levels, and no immedate shocks that need significant fiscal responses. The major 𝗖𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆 in case of severely negative events, which provides a strong level of safety for investors. In general, Trump got away with his tariffs without kicking off much of a trade war and the odds of a near-term reignition of the Chinese civil war have declined. In a grand historic view, 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗯𝗹𝘆 𝗮 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 overall, and with the potential for some historically good returns from the companies that will ultimately have the best competitive position in the largest most profitable markets around AI within a few years. Best regards, Jeppe Kirk Bonde

1 Mentioned

SPX500

Strictly Necessary Cookies

Performance Cookies

Functional Cookies

Targeting Cookies