James Paterson @Airwalk86: "Afternoon from London U.K guys..."

United Kingdom

Afternoon from London U.K guys and I hope you're all getting on OK? First off what a volatile market we are trying to navigate right now!? On the surface it would seem that it has been easy when you see $NSDQ100 up 15% YTD but the reality is that this performance has mainly been driven by some heavy hitters in the Semi-Conductors space namely $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) & $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc). If you haven't owned the above like myself then sadly you have underperformed. The question really is what is to come next and how can we position ourselves into year end? Well I've included an updated chart from the brilliant Ben Cowen which shows the performance of $BTC in mid-term years (like we are in now). You will see that we are within the usual log trend for Bitcoin currently with a bottoming likely to be by year end. As for levels it could easily mean that we go below $50k with a bit more damage still to come in Alt-Coins also where we are pretty heavily exposed. However this would not be a time to sell, more so a time to add or at least maintain exposure. New money from me however will not be added to Crypto but to lagging stock positions. We are now seeing rate hikes from the fed being priced in going forwards after this July meeting. I think that this is a mistake. If we look at the $OIL price for example on a 5yr chart it's actually down 7% that means any inflationary spikes truly should be transitory provided the conflict in the Middle-East doesn't reignite. We could see a near-term pull-back in stocks and Crypto which will price out rate hikes and increase odds of rate cuts going forwards. An interesting video from Raoul Pal asked the question given where Semi-Conductors are priced now vs Crypto which asset class is likely to outperform over the next 12 months? I'd bet on Crypto and history would back that bet. Thanks for reading, James

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.