Damien Albin Douarre @Lyssky: "𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐑𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐩 The down-trend is..."

France

𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐑𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐩 The down-trend is now confirmed for major US index as the war weights on growth perspectives and the future monetary policies. Let’s see what this week brought. 🌐 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 & 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 🔹 The war in Iran seems nowhere near a conclusion, with drones strikes reported around the Gulf. Water plants and energy installations were targeted, signaling further escalation in the uncertainty. 🔹 All rates were maintained flat this week. They stand at 2% for the eurozone, 3.75% for England, and 3.50-3.75% for the Fed. What changed though is that there are not likely to get lowered anytime soon due to the expectation of an inflationary boom. The ECB said it would consider raising them, if necessary, while the Fed is going to “wait and see”. When inflation is price-driven, the last thing you need is elevated rates because you get the worst of both worlds: rising prices despite the rates, and a slowdown in business development (and salary raises) because money gets expensive. This leads to stagflation – the combination of no growth and inflation – or even recessions, and this is what markets are currently fearing and pricing. 🔹 US PPI came at 3.4% YoY and 0.7% since last month, exceeding expectations. However, the figure excluding foods and energy came at 3.5% YoY. This tells us that the impact of the energy price surge has is not yet being reflected in PPI data, which suggests that even stronger numbers will be reported next month. 🏦 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🔹 Markets declining for four weeks in a row: ▪️S&P500: -1.65% (prev. -1.48%) ▪️Nasdaq: -1.78% (prev. -1.04%) ▪️Dow Jones: -1.78% (prev. -1.85%) 🔹 Nothing much to add, keep an eye out for real good opportunities as investors may be panic-selling as they always do in similar situations. 🔹 From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P almost hit its 50 weeks Moving Average. The question now is will it bounce back, or will it cross it? If it bounces, it can lead to a short-to-medium-term rally with a powerful start. If it crosses, we can expect to go much lower. I don’t really value technical analysis as a predictive tool, but similar patterns tend to give similar outcomes, and this particular feature has been quite recurring. 💠𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 🔹 Thanks to a second week of relief Fear & Greed Index rose slightly from 30 to 32 after reaching a temporary high of 45 on Monday. 🔹 Bitcoin finishes the week almost flat since last Friday at $70.6k after rallying up to $76k. 🔹 A more nuanced picture from ETFs this week. BTC and Solana recorded some inflows while ETH registered outflows despite the launch of its stacking ETF last week: BTC: +$93.1M (prev. +$763.4M) ETH: -$60M (prev. +$160.9M) SOL: +$20.4M (prev. +$10.7M) 🔹 BlackRock’s ETH Yield ETF has now been live for two weeks, with ETHB. We don’t see any obvious rotation between ETHA (without staking) and ETHB, however it is now even more interesting for investors who were already considering to invest vie this kind of products. ⚡ 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗰 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝘀 🔹 Less volatility in the Brent, but prices remained fairly elevated, especially after the attack on South Pars (one of the major gas fields). $Oil closed at $109.55/bbl. 🔹 Metals traded down again this week as a stronger dollar counter-balances their attractiveness. $Gold closed at $4491/oz, $Silver at $67.89/oz. 🔹 $Copper also traded lower with a strong weekly decline pushing the metal’s price down from about $12,800 per ton to $11,800. 💬 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 Investors’ pessimism regarding the near-term future of the economy is weighing heavily on markets, which is exactly where we can prepare for great performances. Being cold-minded and keeping an eye out for great businesses that are mispriced is crucial, it will help you through these hard times with increasing your cortisol levels. Have a great weekend and see you on Monday! Cheers 🥂 D.A.D $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $DJ30 $BTC $OIL 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘳: 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴 𝘮𝘺 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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SPX500

NSDQ100

DJ30

BTC

Bitcoin

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