Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "The hardest part of investing..."

Finland

The hardest part of investing is often doing nothing. After the recent sell-off in tech, the market feels stuck again. The bubble talk is back. “Everything is overvalued” is back. And naturally, the temptation appears: sell something, raise cash, rebalance, or do something smart-looking. But history shows that in moments like this, the best decision is often to stay patient. I do not currently plan any sharp portfolio moves based only on short-term fear and market noise. We are approaching an important earnings season, and I remain optimistic about the long-term setup. Of course, the short term may stay volatile. The last few weeks gave us two clean examples of how strong results are not always enough when sentiment turns nervous. $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) just posted the best quarter in its history. Revenue more than quadrupled from a year ago to a record 41.5 billion dollars, and guidance points to around 50 billion this quarter. And yet the stock now sits roughly 22% below the high it reached in late June. Record numbers on one side, a falling share price on the other. $SMSN.L (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd - GDR) told a similar story this month. Preliminary Q2 operating profit came in near 89 trillion won, about 58 billion dollars, close to 19 times higher than a year earlier and a fresh record. 🚨 Hold on! Read it once again, 19 times - it’s 1800% The market response was to close the stock about 7% lower on the day. The blockbuster quarter had already been priced in, so a great result became something to sell into rather than celebrate. But if we look beyond the next few weeks and think in terms of 2028-2030, the picture becomes clearer. Demand for chips, energy, data centers and computing power is still growing faster than supply can comfortably expand. The world still does not have enough semiconductors, enough power infrastructure, or enough compute capacity. Over the next few weeks, a handful of reports will tell me more than any single day of price action: $ASML (ASML Holding NV) on July 15. The headline numbers will probably look great, but I care more about the outlook and how fast they can scale output, given that demand is already booked out through 2026. The speed of that ramp matters more to me than one quarter of sales. $GEV (GE Vernova LLC) on July 23. The real bottleneck in new power generation right now is gas turbines. Gas is the fastest way to add serious capacity, but you cannot build the plants without the turbines, and GE Vernova is effectively sold out for years. Their combined turbine backlog and slot reservations jumped from 83 to 100 GW in a single quarter, against production capacity of roughly 20 GW a year with simple math we see that’s it’s sold out for the next 5 years. And it is not only turbines: their electrification segment booked 2.4 billion dollars of data center equipment orders in a single quarter, more than in all of the previous year. I want to see whether that momentum continues. I want to know if they can scale up turbines manufacturing to accelerate the growth even further. $MSFT (Microsoft) on July 29. Here I am watching growth, especially in cloud and in reselling compute capacity for AI. Azure has been growing around 40%, the company keeps saying demand still exceeds supply, and its commercial backlog recently climbed past 600 billion dollars. If that holds, it says a lot about how real the underlying demand really is. Just yesterday I wrote a post, that leading LLM providers don’t have enough compute to serve their paid customers. So for now, my position is simple: I prefer to hold quality assets, stay invested, and avoid making emotional decisions because of short-term market noise. Sometimes doing nothing is not laziness. Sometimes it is discipline. Patience can be a position. Which of these or other reports in July are you watching most closely? Are you making any moves before then, or sitting tight like me? ——— $MU $SMSN.L $ASML $GEV $MSFT ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.