Lamanvj @Lamanvj: "▶️ December 6th, 2025 —..."

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▶️ December 6th, 2025 — $NATGAS Analytics This week, natural gas spiked to a new three‑year high around 5.23 on Friday before fading into the close near 5.06, leaving a clear upper wick that signals initial exhaustion at resistance after a steep multi‑week rally. Daily RSI‑14 sits of 70.6 is firmly in overbought territory. Price still trades significantly above the EMA50/100/150 band (4.3–3.8 area). ⸻ Key Fundamentals (week vs last week) • Production: stable around 109–110 Bcf/d • Consumption: Total U.S. demand including exports is estimated in the low‑140s Bcf/d due to early‑December cold spell • LNG Exports: near record levels around 18 Bcf/d • Storage: −12 Bcf withdrawal vs expected −18 Bcf. Stocks at 3.92 Tcf, ~5% above the 5 yrs avg and slightly below last year (comfortable storage cushion despite the cold snap?) ⸻ Technical Levels • Resistance: this week’s high around 5.23, with a psychological extension zone up toward 5.50 if weather anxiety and polar‑vortex headlines intensify. A clean daily close above 5.23–5.25 would confirm a breakout and likely pull in additional momentum and CTA buying. • Support: 5.00 (Friday’s close zone), followed by 4.85–4.60 (recent breakout and congestion area). Below that, deeper mean‑reversion levels at EMA cluster of 4.3–3.8; a sustained move back into that band would indicate that the winter weather premium is being unwound. ⸻ Outlook My last week’s bet on correction was invalidated by polar vortex risk that currently dominate the narrative. I did have the scenario of spike to 5.2 on weather panic, but did not think it would happen so early in the winter. Ensemble guidance and CPC outlooks keep roughly 50–70% odds of below‑normal temperatures for the next 10–14 days, and several forecasters point to an ongoing polar‑vortex disruption through mid‑December. This has shifted positioning from “normal winter premium” to hedging a tail‑risk cold scenario, attracting fresh momentum and CTA buying instead of the profit‑taking usually seen after such a strong run. At the same time, Friday’s rejection at 5.23 and close back near 5.06, combined with daily RSI around 70.6, signal an overbought and increasingly crowded market that is vulnerable to a corrective pause or pullback. If polar‑vortex‑linked cold verifies and remains entrenched, price can reasonably probe and, for periods, hold the 5.2–5.5 band, with short‑lived spikes higher possible if freeze‑offs or export logistics further tighten the balance. If, however, model runs moderate or shift toward more seasonal conditions in the second half of December, ample storage and near‑record production argue for a mean‑reversion path back toward 4.7–4.5 initially, and potentially 4.3–4.0 if the weather premium deflates more decisively. ▶️ Nathalie ($NATGAS volatility trading model) Week #49 update: $6165 Nathalie’s net profit (Nathalie’s earnings + refunds, excl. capital build up) =❗️88.1% vs $7k of assumed capital invested ▫️+ $3860 Nathalie’s earnings (560 this week) ▫️+ $2310 Nathalie’s refunds (-390 this week) EXCLUDED FROM EARNINGS: + $4,000 Capital build up (to reach $7,000) + $7860 Total earnings as shown on Etoro's YTD statement Current state: $NATGAS: 4,558 units short (13 sells, including 3 oversized); Opened 5 and 5.2 sells $UNG (US Natural Gas): 382 units long ($1,000 strategic buys, 1,234 NG equivalent units); TP’d one buy at +$550 profit ▶️ Lookahead: Our new Ice Age price now stress tests Nathalie’s resilience. The plan is to force liquidate 3 older sells of 938 NG units (3.05, 3.2 and 3.3) once the recovery sell is set at 5.5 (1500 units). This will hit me with -$2k loss which i can easily absorb with current profitability. It would be recovered on correction to 3.85. My current SLs are at 6 and can be extended to 6.5 if required. ▶️ Current key levels: S=sell, B=buy;▪️limit price order 🔸TP ✅ executed during the week; UNG/NG = 3.23, NG<> values to be updated weekly; sd=shutdown $NATGAS: $150 is the default stake size for Phase 1 scale-up, legacy $100 positions are marked with “, strategic 500 units positions are marked with * $UNG: stake size shown 🔸NG<6.48> / UNG 20.95 – TP $1,000 🔸NG<5.84> / UNG 18.86 – TP $500 🔸NG<5.58> / UNG 18.03 – TP $800 ▪️NG 5.50 – RS (recovery sell 1,500 units); S1”/S2”/S3” to be shut down at 5.35 once RS is placed ▪️NG 5.35 – REVISED S14* 🔹NG 5.07 / UNG 16.37 – EOW LEVEL ✅▪️NG 4.95 – NEW UNG buy ($300 @≈15.50) ✅▪️NG 4.70 – NEW UNG buy ($300 @≈15.00) ✅▪️NG 4.65 – S10 sd ✅🔸NG 4.54 – REVISED TP S4 $50 ✅▪️NG 4.49 – NEW UNG buy ($500 @≈14.50) ✅▪️NG 4.40 – S9 sd ▪️NG 4.33 – UNG buy ($500 @≈14.00) ✅▪️NG 4.20 – S8 sd ✅▪️NG 4.1 – B1 ▪️NG 4.02 – UNG buy ($500 units @≈13.00) ✅▪️NG 4.01 – S7 sd ▪️NG 3.90 – B2 ▪️NG 3.85 – S6 shutdown ▪️NG 3.70 – B3 ▪️NG 3.65 – S5 shutdown ▪️NG 3.50 – B4 ▪️NG 3.35 – S3 shutdown ▪️NG 3.20 – S2 shutdown ▪️NG 3.15 – B5 ▪️NG 3.05 – S1 shutdown 🔸NG 3.00 – S13*, S12*, S11* TP (+$3,000) NOTE: Below 3 action plan to be published when price returns back to 4

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NATGAS

UNG

US Natural Gas

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