CoinShares Asset Management SAS @Napoleon-X: "Dear investors, ⏰ It’s time for..."

Smart Portfolio

Dear investors, ⏰ It’s time for our weekly commentary! 📊 One useful way to gauge whether a market rally is built on solid ground is to look at how options traders - essentially the market's insurance buyers - are behaving relative to price. Normally, when markets rise, demand for protection falls: investors feel confident, so they stop buying hedges and implied volatility drops. The chart above tracks exactly this relationship for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), and for most of the time the line has sat deep in negative territory, behaving exactly as expected. What makes the current moment stand out is that this relationship has flipped. Markets have rallied strongly in an AI-led rally, yet options traders have continued bidding up protection rather than standing down - an unusual combination that suggests a degree of scepticism beneath the surface optimism. One of two things typically follows such episodes: either the hedges prove unnecessary, vol collapses, and the rally continues cleanly - or the caution proves warranted, and markets pull back to find a more sustainable footing. What the chart is really saying is that we are in a moment of elevated uncertainty, where the market has not yet made up its mind. 🎯 Our @Napoleon-X portfolio is down 8.2% over the past 7 days and 14% over the past 30 days. Exposure was reduced two weeks ago by 70%, in line with our risk management process responding to deteriorating trend signals. The portfolio remains underexposed to the crypto market, a stance we are maintaining until clearer directional signals emerge. A number of warning signs remain in place, including ongoing macro uncertainty and elevated geopolitical tensions. 🔎 What happened last week: 👉 US strategic Bitcoin reserve advancing, CLARITY Act urged before summer recess. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Senate Finance Committee that the administration is proceeding with "deliberate speed" on the strategic Bitcoin reserve mandated by President Trump's March 2025 executive order, acknowledging the initiative as "new ground" requiring careful implementation. Bessent also urged lawmakers to pass the CLARITY Act before the August recess, framing digital asset regulation as essential for US competitiveness. The Treasury has confirmed it will not purchase additional BTC on the open market; the reserve grows through criminal and civil forfeitures only. A governance and custody update remains pending following a White House commitment made in April. Reported by Decrypt. 👉 Kraken's parent Payward to open US IPO access to global retail investors via xStocks. Payward, the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, plans to allow retail investors on Kraken and other xStocks Alliance platforms to participate in US-listed IPOs at the institutional offering price, using tokenized shares backed one-for-one by the underlying stock held in regulated custody. The xStocks framework has processed over $30B in transaction volume and $6B in on-chain settlements across 125,000 holders. The timing is notable: the SpaceX IPO is reportedly targeting a 12 June listing, and TSLAx was the most traded xStock on Kraken last month by dollar volume, signalling strong existing appetite for Musk-linked equity. Reported by Ledger Insights. 👉 Bitcoin accepted as mortgage collateral under Fannie Mae framework. Coinbase and mortgage lender Better have closed the first Fannie Mae-backed home loan using Bitcoin as collateral in the United States. The inaugural mortgage was issued to a couple in Ann Arbor, Michigan, who used their Bitcoin holdings to cover the down payment without liquidating their position, avoiding a taxable sale and preserving long-term exposure. The product initially supports Bitcoin and USDC as collateral, with Coinbase acting as custodial infrastructure provider. A nationwide rollout is planned for summer 2026. The development follows a policy directive from FHFA director Bill Pulte ordering the regulator to recognise crypto held on centralised exchanges. Reported by Decrypt. Thank you for your support 🙏 $CSHR $BITC.DE (CoinShares Bitcoin ETP)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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