Fabio De Oliveira Vianna @fabiovianna89: "⚠️ Market Turbulence: Tariffs, Tensions,..."

Portugal

⚠️ Market Turbulence: Tariffs, Tensions, and Why We Are 40% Cash The last 4 days have been a wake-up call. Volatility is back, driven by escalating tariff tensions between the US and the EU—specifically targeting France. 🌍 The Macro View: Geopolitics is shaking the markets. The threat of new trade barriers is creating uncertainty, and uncertainty kills momentum. We are seeing sharp intraday swings as algorithms react to every headline. 🇺🇸 What Trump Did: In a shock move, President Trump has threatened 10% tariffs (rising to 25% by June) on 8 European nations—including France 🇫🇷, Germany 🇩🇪, and the UK 🇬🇧. The Reason: It’s not just about trade deficits anymore. It’s leverage to force the sale of Greenland. The Impact: This hits everything from French Luxury (LVMH, Kering) to German Autos and Dutch Tech. $MC.PA (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA) $BMW.DE (Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft) $ADS.DE (Adidas AG) 🇪🇺 How the EU is Reacting: Europe isn't blinking. France's Stance: President Macron has called the threats "unacceptable" and is pushing the EU to trigger the "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI)—a "trade bazooka" that could ban US companies from EU tenders and restrict digital services. Retaliation: The EU is reportedly prepping a €93 Billion counter-tariff package. 📉 What to Expect: Short-term Pain: Expect more chop. Sectors sensitive to trade (Luxury, Autos, Industrials) will remain under pressure. Opportunity: Panic selling often throws the baby out with the bathwater. High-quality companies with domestic focus or strong moats will get dragged down too—that is where we strike. 🛡️ Our Strategy: Calm & Calculated While others panic, we prepare. I have actively managed our risk and increased our Cash Position to 40%. Why 40% Cash? Safety: It insulates us from further downside volatility. Optionality: Cash is a call option on future value. When the dust settles and valuations disconnect from reality, we will have the firepower to buy the best assets at bargain prices. 🚀 The Plan: We are not timing the market; we are pricing it. We sit tight, collect our dividends from our defensive core, and wait for the "fat pitch." $SPX500 $GER40 $UK100 $FRA40 $EURUSD