Eric Mansson @ManssonEric: "𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘 After weeks of gridlock,..."

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𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘 After weeks of gridlock, the pressure finally became too much. Eight of 47 Senate Democrats broke ranks to end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history. The deal is only temporary, funding the government until January 30, meaning another shutdown could loom early next year if no long-term agreement is reached. The economic toll is already visible — the Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown will cut Q4 GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points, with only about half of that loss expected to be recovered in Q1 2026. 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗳𝗼𝗴 “𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘥𝘰 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶’𝘳𝘦 𝘥𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘰𝘨? 𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯.” That was Jerome Powell’s response when asked how missing data might affect the Fed’s December rate decision. With key reports — including the September and October jobs data and today’s missing October inflation print — delayed or potentially lost, policymakers and markets are left guessing about the true state of the economy. The White House even warned that October’s jobs and inflation data may never be released, leaving the Fed to navigate uncertainty until early December, when new figures arrive just before the next rate meeting. Markets remained calm overnight. The 10-year Treasury yield ended unchanged after small swings, EUR/USD climbed to 1.160 before easing, and the S&P 500 closed flat. The Australian dollar strengthened on strong labor data, while USD/JPY briefly hit 155 before pulling back. Oil prices dropped by $2.50 per barrel after OPEC revised its Q3 supply outlook from a deficit to a surplus. 𝗘𝗹𝘀𝗲𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲: Macron’s pension reform collapsed under bipartisan opposition, worsening France’s fiscal outlook. In Germany, “the wise men” warned that half of the €500B special fund may not translate into new investment, limiting its growth impact. Meanwhile, the UK economy likely slowed sharply in Q3, with GDP expected to rise only 0.1% q/q. If you found this update useful, please make sure to hit the like button to show your appreciation. $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $OIL $GOLD $EURUSD

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