Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 16 ᴍᴀʀᴄʜ 2026 The..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 16 ᴍᴀʀᴄʜ 2026 The most difficult periods for my strategy have historically been those when the economy weakens, especially when it happens abruptly and unexpectedly. The most recent example was February–March 2020. I did not anticipate the economic impact that COVID would have on the global economy, and as a result the portfolio lost 30% within a few weeks. By contrast, in 2022 the economy transitioned gradually from expansion to contraction. Leading indicators signalled the slowdown well in advance, which allowed time to reposition the portfolio. 2022 ended up being a good year with only a limited drawdown. In 2026 the economy has again been hit by an external shock, this time from war, and the portfolio has suffered relative to the index. Most of the time I run a pro-cyclical portfolio that benefits from a strong economic environment. When an unexpected shock occurs, this positioning can lead to significant short-term losses. From experience, I would rather accept a 10–15% loss early than allow a drawdown to grow to 30% or more if the economic environment continues to deteriorate. Although I am a risk-tolerant investor, the majority of my liquid assets are invested in this strategy. Historically the maximum drawdown of the strategy has been 30%. While I am comfortable with this level of volatility, I would prefer to avoid larger losses than this if possible. There are currently a few indications that the economy may weaken later this year. The war is of course the most immediate risk, but employment data has also been soft recently. As a result, I have exited all bank positions in the portfolio. The sector performed very well from 2022 to 2025 thanks to higher interest rates and low starting valuations. I believe banks could continue to perform well if the war ends quickly, but given the stage of the economic cycle, the risks are also increasing. One area that may offer pro-cyclical exposure with lower systemic risk is Industrials. Companies in this sector usually carry limited debt and therefore are less exposed to the risk of a financial crisis. To replace the bank exposure, I have added defensive Healthcare positions. Investors currently appear willing to buy any dip, even in the face of potentially very negative developments. This optimism may ultimately prove justified if the war ends quickly. However, current market prices also offer little risk premium if the conflict continues and economic conditions deteriorate. For this reason, I am maintaining a defensive portfolio with a significant cash position. If the cash remains in the portfolio for longer, it will be invested in cash ETFs to earn interest. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 Banks have been sold; new positions have been opened in Merck and Sanofi. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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