Zechariah Bin Zheng
๐—จ๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ: ๐Ÿšจ ๐—ช๐—ฒ ๐—š๐—ผ๐˜ ๐—œ๐˜ ๐—ฆ๐—ผ ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜, ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—˜๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—œ๐—ป + ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐˜€ ____________________________________________________ ๐Ÿง  ๐—ง๐—Ÿ;๐——๐—ฅ - Our poll shows most of you value my 9-year track record & returns the most โœ… - I explain why drawdowns hurt more than gains help, and why I stay cautious - Despite bearish headlines, the market is breakeven โ€” which is hard to digest - One of our largest positions, Esso S.A.F., just proved our thesis right โ€” private equity is buying in, and Iโ€™ve added more ____________________________________________________ ๐Ÿ“Š ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐˜€ ๐—”๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—œ๐—ป Thanks for the ~250 responses to last week's poll! I intentionally didn't tag any assets so we could get the most from our community. Itโ€™s clear: 59.7% of you value my 9-year track record & returns the most. Thatโ€™s more than half โ€” and I truly appreciate the support and feedback. It helps me continue to refine how I communicate the portfolio for all of you. ____________________________________________________ ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด (๐—”๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ช๐—ต๐˜† ๐—œ ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—–๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ) 1๏ธโƒฃ ๐——๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜„๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ต๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฝ During COVID, I had to pull funds from my own account. Pay cut, my wife between jobs โ€” real life kicked in. We often say โ€œbuy the dipโ€ โ€” but in reality, when markets crash, thatโ€™s exactly when people need money most. Thatโ€™s why I: - Keep risk controlled - Hold more cash than most - Aim to do the buying so my copiers donโ€™t need to think about topping up in a downturn 2๏ธโƒฃ ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐˜€๐˜†๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น Lose 50%, need 100% to recover Even if you gain first and lose later โ€” still back at square one Thatโ€™s why I always aim for asymmetric risk/reward โ€” not just high returns, but high returns relative to risk. ๐Ÿ˜ตโ€๐Ÿ’ซ ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜ ๐—ก๐—ผ๐˜„: ๐—œ๐˜โ€™๐˜€ ๐—›๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐——๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜ Despite listening to nothing but negative macro podcasts lately โ€” High US interest rates, excessive deficit spending, crazy valuations, and extreme exposure to US mega caps โ€” the market is somehow still breakeven year-to-date. Itโ€™s confusing, and thatโ€™s exactly why Iโ€™m trimming exposure where needed. ๐Ÿ“‰ Iโ€™ve sold names like MongoDB to reduce risk. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US valuations feel stretched. $SPX500 (SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)) $DJ30 (DJ30 Index (Non Expiry)) ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe? Iโ€™m not bullish broadly โ€” but still confident in mispriced names like Vistry. In this environment, weโ€™re staying laser-focused on: Cash-flowing businesses Real (not hyped) growth potential Disciplined sizing and entry ____________________________________________________ ๐Ÿ’ผ ๐—˜๐˜€๐˜€๐—ผ ๐—ฆ.๐—”.๐—™. โ€” ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—˜๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—–๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ This is one of our largest positions โ€” and it just proved itself. ๐Ÿ“ฐ ExxonMobil $XOM (Exxon-Mobil) announced it's selling its 82.89% stake in Esso S.A.F. $ES.PA (Esso Societe Anonyme Francaise SA) to North Atlantic France, a Canadian PE-backed buyer. ๐Ÿ” Deal Terms: Special distribution: โ‚ฌ63.36/share Post-distribution price: โ‚ฌ32.83/share Effective valuation: โ‚ฌ96.19/share Deal closes Q4 2025 **๐‘ด๐’‚๐’๐’…๐’‚๐’•๐’๐’“๐’š ๐’•๐’‚๐’Œ๐’†๐’๐’—๐’†๐’“ ๐’ƒ๐’Š๐’… ๐’Š๐’ ๐—ค๐Ÿญ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ (๐’‚๐’” ๐’‘๐’†๐’“ ๐‘ญ๐’“๐’†๐’๐’„๐’‰ ๐’๐’‚๐’˜)** ๐Ÿ“‰ ๐—ช๐—ต๐˜† ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐——๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ~๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ%: Implied valuation is seen as low, given Essoโ€™s cash-rich balance sheet Investors may have expected a better premium for the core business New ownership brings strategy and visibility risks Potential for lower liquidity post-Exxon exit โœ… ๐—•๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒโ€™๐˜€ ๐˜„๐—ต๐˜† ๐—œโ€™๐—บ ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด: The thesis was right โ€” and now private equity is validating it The mandatory bid gives us an optional exit later I believe the final buyout price could be higher once dust settles So yes โ€” the market dropped the ball here. But I used the dip to buy more. Sometimes, it really pays to be early. I will try and share more next week ____________________________________________________ ๐Ÿ™ As always, thank you for trusting me. We stay patient, we stay disciplined โ€” and we keep hunting for the next mispriced opportunity.
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