๐ก๐ผ๐๐ผ ๐ก๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐ธ: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐บ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ (๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ก๐ฒ๐ ๐)
Most people think $NVO (Novo-Nordisk A/S SPONS ADR) crashed this year because Wegovy/Ozempic went generic.
Thatโs wrong.
In the U.S., semaglutide is STILL patent-protected into the early 2030s.
No generics. No patent cliff. That wasnโt the reason for the drop.
So what did happen?
Letโs break it down - clear, simple, and in English.
๐ญ. ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ฑ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ต๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ-๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐ถ๐ ๐๐น๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
Novo cut its 2025 outlook.
- Sales outlook trimmed
- Operating profit trimmed
- Growth of the weight-loss category slower than expected
The market hates when โinfinite growthโ suddenly becomes โnormal/good growth.โ
. ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐จ.๐ฆ. ๐ด๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฝ๐๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฐ๐๐๐.
- Novo confirmed it would drag 2026 sales growth lower (low single digits).
- Pricing pressure = lower margins = lower valuation.
๐ฎ. ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฝ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ผ๐ (๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐).
- Compounded semaglutide = โcopycat versions,โ not true generics.
They were:
- Cheaper
- Easier to get
- Eating into branded sales
- Messing with demand visibility
FDA has now shut most of this down - but earlier in the year, it damaged sentiment.
๐ฏ. ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐๐.
- 9,000 job cuts. New CEO. Governance noise. Board reshuffle.
- Even if this helps long-term, in the short term it signals โWeโre fixing internal issues.โ
- Markets hate uncertainty.
๐ฐ. ๐ ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ต๐ถ๐น๐ฒ, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ด๐ผ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ.
This is the part most people missed:
Wegovy & Ozempic added:
- Cardiovascular risk reduction
- Chronic kidney disease protection
- Accelerated approval for MASH
These make the drugs more valuable and more reimbursable.
The oral obesity pill is still pending approval - another potential unlock.
๐ฑ. ๐ฆ๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐?
Keeping it brutally simple:
๐๐๐น๐น ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
Back to $65 - $75
If the oral pill is approved + pricing stabilizes + competition doesnโt overwhelm them.
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
Up to $55 - $65
Slower recovery, strong demand, pricing caps upside.
๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
Stays at $45 - $55
If pricing cuts deepen, or guidance is cut again.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ
Novo didnโt crash because Wegovy โwent generic.โ
It crashed because it went from: โRocket ship with no ceilingโ to โStrong company facing real-world friction.โ
- Demand is durable.
- Science is strong.
- Patents are intact.
Tell me your thoughts:
Where will the stock be 12 months from now?... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Probabilmente tra 11 mesi le azioni di Novo Nordisk saliranno, ma cosa pensi di Eli Lilly invece?... Show More Translate
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