Dear followers,
In the landscape of investment, success hinges not merely on initial insights but on sustained engagement and adaptability. Remaining immersed in a sector, analyzing trends, and evolutions enables investors to refine strategies and uncover opportunities. This principle has guided my approach so far, let me share one example.
I maintained a strongly bullish position on Teladoc, underpinned by a strong thesis. The telehealth market was poised for exponential growth, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Teladoc's first-mover status, extensive network of members, and strategic acquisitions like Livongo positioned it as a leader in integrated virtual care. Revenue surged a few years ago, validating the potential for cost-effective, accessible healthcare. However, execution faltered. Post-pandemic utilization declined, international expansion lagged, and competition intensified. The Livongo acquisition inflated debt, contributing to persistent losses. In Q2 2025, revenue fell 2% year-over-year to 631.9$ million, with a net loss of 32.7$ million. Shares have plummeted 97% from their peak, with a ridiculous low valuation. This outcome stemmed not from a flawed sector but from operational missteps.
Rather than withdrawing, I deepened my sector knowledge. Telehealth remains vital, with the global market forecasted to reach 455$ billion by 2030, driven by AI personalization and consumer-centric models. Teladoc's enterprise-focused approach proved inefficient; a direct-to-consumer model offers greater agility. This led me to Hims & Hers Health, which is methodically reshaping telehealth through efficiency and innovation. Founded in 2017, the company delivers personalized treatments for wellness, mental health, dermatology, and weight management via an integrated platform. By controlling consultations, prescriptions, and delivery, Hims & Hers achieves high margins and retention.
Key financial highlights underscore its potential:
- Revenue Growth: Q2 2025 revenue reached 544.8$ million, up 73% year-over-year. Full-year guidance: 2.3–2.4$ billion, implying 60%+ growth from 2024's 1.5$ billion.
- Profitability: Net income of 42.5$ million in Q2; adjusted EBITDA of 82.2$ million (15% margin). Positive free cash flow supports expansion without dilution.
- Subscriber Base: Over 2.4 million subscribers, up 31% year-over-year, with 80%+ 90-day retention.
- Innovation: AI-driven MedMatch and international plans (e.g., Europe in late 2025) target untapped markets. Weight loss segment added 73,000 subscribers in Q2.
- Valuation: Market cap of 9.57$ billion, trading at 4x forward sales, attractive given growth trajectory.
By this Hims & Hers exemplifies efficient disruption, transforming telehealth into an accessible tool for millions. Risks include regulatory scrutiny on compounded medications, but agility mitigates them. Long-term, 30–40% CAGR could yield a 50$ billion valuation by 2030.
Persistence yields dividends. Will see. Oh, and Teladoc is still in the portfolio for a reason, but more on that next time.
$TDOC (Teladoc Health Inc)$HIMS (Hims & Hers Health Inc)... Show More
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Sun Feb 15 2026 07:47:29 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
