🌍 Estado actual del mercado – Resumen rápido (según $JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co) )
Cada trimestre, $JPM publica su Guide to the Market, uno de los informes más seguidos para entender dónde estamos y hacia dónde podemos ir. Aquí te dejo lo más importante, mezclado con insights de otras casas como Morgan Stanley y BofA.
1️⃣ EE. UU. domina… pero el resto del mundo está despertando
Hoy, EE. UU. representa 65% de la capitalización bursátil global.
Comparativas rápidas:
$JPN225 pasó de más del 40% en los 80 a solo ~5% hoy.
Europa se ha ido diluyendo hasta ~11%.
Emergentes han subido desde 0% en los 90 a ~11% hoy.
📌 Cuando tanto capital se concentra en un solo mercado, las valoraciones suben… y los retornos futuros tienden a bajar.
Y los datos de 2025 lo confirman: fuera de EE. UU. el comportamiento está siendo mucho mejor que en USD.
Rendimiento YTD:
Emergentes: +28.2%
Europa: +34.4%
$CHINA50 : +41.8%
$GER40 : +33.6%
$SPX500: +14.8%
👉 Conclusión: el mundo ex-EE. UU. está tirando más fuerte este año.
2️⃣ Valoraciones: EE. UU. está caro
El $SPX500 cotiza en 22.8x PER, por encima de su media histórica (~17x).
Niveles así no se veían de forma sostenida desde el año 2000.
Comparativa fuera de EE. UU.:
Europa: 14.6x PER (mucho más barata)
Según JP_Morgan:
Retorno esperado 1 año del $SPX500: +4–5%
Rentabilidad anualizada a 5 años: ~0%
📌 Mensaje clave: EE. UU. está “pagado”. Cada dólar compra menos crecimiento que hace unos años.
👉 Fuente: JP Morgan Asset Management – Guide to the Markets (Estados Unidos), edición trimestral.
Saludos y buena inversión
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Wed Jan 14 2026 22:06:56 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
