Jay Smith @jaynemesis: "𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 //𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝟷 𝑜𝑓 𝟹..."

United Kingdom

𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 //𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝟷 𝑜𝑓 𝟹 - 𝑠𝑒𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝟸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝟹 I’m sure most of you have seen the news over the past 24 hours that the US and Israel launched a joint operation against Iran. A lot has happened already, and the situation is ongoing, but I wanted to write a quick update ahead of markets opening tomorrow. What can we expect, what are some potential ramifications, how might this impact markets, and my portfolio. 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘕𝘰𝘵𝘦: As I was writing this post more events have unfolded, including Iran attacking energy infrastructure directly (something I predicted further down in the post), unfortunately it takes time writing these updates, so inevitably some information could be out of date by the time it is posted. I did not go back through and change anything I’ve written, because it could become a never-ending loop of adjustments as things develop. $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $OIL $NATGAS 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙎𝙞𝙩𝙪𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 Yesterday the US and Israel launched operations targeting Iranian military and government sites. Within hours they reported that Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed. Iran immediately responded to the attacks by launching waves of missile and drone attacks on regional allies to the US, initially targeting US military bases and key infrastructure such as airports. 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘺 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦: 𝗕𝗮𝗵𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻 - The famous 7 star hotel was damaged, but most strikes were on the US Navy base. 𝗤𝗮𝘁𝗮𝗿 - The US’s $1.1Bn ‘Upgraded Early Warning Radar’ (UEWR) was destroyed quickly after the conflict began as the US airbase was heavily targeted. 𝗞𝘂𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁 - Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem air base, which hosts UK and US forces was another early target, as was the airport. 𝗨𝗔𝗘 - Dubai International airport, residential buildings and hotels have all been hit by drone and missile attacks, with social media flooded with posts from stranded tourists and videos of missiles narrowly avoiding the world's tallest building the Birj Khalifa, leading to its evacuation. 𝗢𝗺𝗮𝗻 - Today Oman’s Duqm port was hit by Shahed 136 drone strikes, the oil tanker ‘Skylight’ was also struck. Further from Iran, missile and drone attacks targeted military bases in 𝗖𝘆𝗽𝗿𝘂𝘀, 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗾, 𝗦𝗮𝘂𝗱𝗶 𝗔𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗮, 𝗝𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗻 and 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹, potentially drawing European countries into the conflict as they sought to defend their military assets in the region. Iran also briefly closed the strait of Hormuz, before later clarifying that they would be specifically targeting US ships. Traffic through the strait eventually decreased to a small trickle as insurers warned operators they may cancel policies and increase prices. It is expected that a new Supreme Leader of Iran is expected to be announced in the coming days, until which time it seems unlikely that we would see a major ceasefire. Meanwhile, US and Israeli airstrikes continue, initially focused on Iranian military targets such as missile sites, today more strikes are hitting Iranian capital Tehran. //𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝟷 𝑜𝑓 𝟹 - 𝑠𝑒𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝟸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝟹

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.