$V (Visa)
DCF valuation shows discount.
If you've ever tapped your card at a coffee shop, bought something online in another country, or paid for a streaming subscription, there's a very good chance Visa took a small slice of that transaction - quietly, invisibly, and almost certainly without you thinking about it. That's the business I'm writing about today.
๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐๐บ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐:
* Explicit average 5Y/5Y growth @ 11%/9%
* Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2.5%
* EBITDA Margin compression from 64% to 61% in Y10
WACC @ 8%
* Adj. EBITDA exit multiple of 15.0
* Tax rate 21% - in line with statutory
* The input that drives reinvestment is Sales to Capital ratio = 4.63
My base-case fair value is $ 349. That gives roughly 8% upside, supported by a DCF/EBITDA value of $ 358 and partially offset by a more conservative DCF/perpetuity valuation. I would not underwrite big multiple expansion here. The upside has to come mostly from earnings growth, cash generation, and continued buybacks.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Good insights. Hope to see you in the pro investors meet in Cyprus this November if youโre going... Show More
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Fri Aug 14 2026 04:13:25 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
