Rudolf De Leeuw @RudolfDeLeeuw: "🇺🇸📈 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝟵 𝗙𝗲𝗯..."

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🇺🇸📈 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝟵 𝗙𝗲𝗯 | 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹 𝗮𝘀 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗽𝗹𝘆 After a week in which US equities became noticeably more sensitive to rates, guidance and labor market signals, the upcoming trading week starts with a different kind of tension ⚖️. Not because of a single major policy event, but because markets are relying less on narratives and more on hard data 📊. The margin for error has narrowed, and confirmation is now key. Brief context from last week Last week showed how quickly sentiment can shift ⚡. Rising yields, doubts around AI capex and early cracks in labor market indicators triggered rotation away from mega-cap growth, while more defensive areas held up better 🛡️. At the same time, sharp moves outside equities highlighted just how rate-driven the current environment has become. What matters most this coming week? 1️⃣ Labor market: confirmation or acceleration? The labor market remains the primary anchor for both rates and sentiment 🧭. After weaker ADP and JOLTS data, markets will closely watch: • Initial jobless claims • Any signals on hiring trends and wage growth A controlled cooling remains the most market-friendly scenario 👍. But if data starts pointing toward genuine weakness, the narrative can quickly shift from “soft landing” to a growth scare 📉. 2️⃣ Inflation: trend beats the headline Inflation data will again be interpreted through the lens of real yields 🔍. • No upside surprise allows yields to stabilize • Sticky services or wage inflation immediately pressures multiples It is not the number itself, but the underlying trend that drives the reaction. 3️⃣ Consumer confidence: soft data matters again After weeks dominated by hard data, consumer confidence is back in focus 🧠. Especially when combined with labor market signals, it is increasingly seen as an early indicator of earnings risk later in the year. 4️⃣ Central banks: no action, still influential No immediate Fed action is expected, but communication and interpretation remain market-moving 🏦. The key question is whether central banks remain comfortable with current financial conditions. ECB signals also matter indirectly via FX, rates and global risk sentiment 🌍. 5️⃣ Earnings: guidance and capex drive reactions Markets are paying less attention to beats or misses and more to: • Guidance • AI-related capex • Margins and cash flow Higher investment is only tolerated when the path to profitability is clear 🚦. Gold, silver and crypto: clear signals Moves outside equities were sharp as well ⚠️. Silver suffered a steep decline, while gold corrected roughly 10% from its peak. The main drivers were: 1. Reduced uncertainty around monetary policy, pushing real yields higher 2. A stronger dollar and heavy profit-taking after crowded positioning Crypto followed the same pattern 🔄. Bitcoin and other digital assets once again behaved like liquid risk assets, coming under pressure as yields rose and the dollar strengthened, and remaining highly sensitive to fast sentiment shifts 💱. What does this mean for markets? This is shaping up to be a week where interpretation matters more than headlines 🧩. Yield direction remains the dominant driver, fueled by labor market and inflation signals. As long as data points to cooling without breaking, the underlying trend can remain intact, albeit with more rotation and volatility 🌪️. If weakness accelerates, markets are likely to move quickly toward defensive positioning. 👉 The Fed is done. Now the data decides. If you agree with my view or found this update valuable, a like is very much appreciated 👍. It helps this update reach other interested investors and keeps me motivated to keep investing time and effort into these posts. $DJ30 $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $RTY $BTC

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