Filippo Affetti @filippoaffetti: "Third chapter of one of..."

Italy

Third chapter of one of my strategy models that I adopt to choose which stocks to invest in: 📺 Scenario analysis Scenarios offer plausible alternative views of how the macro-environment should evolve or develop in the future, typically more in the long term, usually in situations of high uncertainty. Porter define it as “an internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be - not a forecast, but one future outcome”. They differ from other analysis since instead of predicting, they just study and explore, to give to the managers a wider prospective about the future. Steps of the scenario process: - Defining scenario scope (time spam, sectors, geographical area) - Identify key drivers for change and relevant dimensions (PESTEL, forecasts, cube) - Developing scenarios stories/titles - Identifying impacts (about vulnerable situations “emergency plans”) (check and adapt strategies) - Monitor progress Scenario stories are assessed by creating narratives of how a scenario alternative can come to be, thereafter analysing the impact for the company in respective alternative, preparing for each plausible scenarios while monitoring and adjusting. Compound strategy: Strategic imperatives (SI): objectives that remained stable throughout the scenarios. Strategic choices (SC): objectives that did not appear in all scenarios but do fit in future strategic direction. $ALB (Albemarle Corporation) $BABA (Alibaba-ADR) $RWAY (Runway Growth Finance Corp)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

3 Mentioned

ALB

Albemarle Corporation

BABA

Alibaba-ADR

RWAY

Runway Growth Finance Corp

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