Peter Ahl
๐Ÿ’ฒ ๐™”๐™๐˜ฟ ๐™‹๐™š๐™ง๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š: ๐Ÿต,๐Ÿฐ% ๐Ÿ“ˆ ๐™‹๐™š๐™ง๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ: ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฐ,๐Ÿฑ% ๐Ÿš€ ๐™‹๐™š๐™ง๐™›๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™š ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฐ: ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฎ,๐Ÿญ% Risk-score 4/10. ______________________________________________ ๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™ ๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™ง๐™š๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ฎ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ-๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿต, ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ’น ๐™Š๐™ซ๐™š๐™ง๐™–๐™ก๐™ก ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™Š๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ค๐™  Markets enter the new week with a somewhat better tone after a period of volatility driven by inflation concerns, higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Last week showed again how quickly sentiment can shift when investors move between macro worries and renewed confidence in AI-related earnings growth. ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™—๐™ง๐™ค๐™–๐™™๐™š๐™ง ๐™ข๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ก๐™ก ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ค๐™ ๐™จ ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ช๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™š, ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™จ๐™š๐™ก๐™š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™š. The strongest companies continue to be rewarded, while weaker guidance, margin pressure or slower growth are punished quickly. ๐Ÿ“Š ๐™‹๐™–๐™จ๐™ฉ ๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™ '๐™จ ๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐˜ผ๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ฎ U.S. equities recovered during the week after a short pullback, helped by renewed strength in technology and semiconductor stocks ahead of NVIDIAโ€™s results. The Dow also reached a record high, while the S&P 500 extended its recent winning streak. At the same time, investors remained focused on oil prices, interest rates and inflation. ๐™ƒ๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™š๐™จ ๐™ค๐™› ๐™ง๐™š๐™™๐™ช๐™˜๐™š๐™™ ๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ง๐™ค๐™ช๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™„๐™ง๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™Ž๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™ž๐™ฉ ๐™ค๐™› ๐™ƒ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ข๐™ช๐™ฏ helped oil move lower into the new week, which ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™š๐™™ ๐™ง๐™ž๐™จ๐™  ๐™–๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™š. ๐Ÿ’ผ ๐™‹๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™›๐™ค๐™ก๐™ž๐™ค ๐˜ผ๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ฎ The most important event for our portfolio last week was $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) โ€™s report. The company delivered another exceptional quarter, with revenue up 85% year over year and Data Center revenue up 92%. Margins also remained very strong, with non-GAAP gross margin around 75%. ๐™๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ข๐™š, ๐™ฉ๐™๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ง๐™š๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™š๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š๐™ฃ๐™š๐™™ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ซ๐™š๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ข๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ฉ ๐™˜๐™–๐™จ๐™š. NVIDIA is not only growing extremely fast, itโ€™s doing so with profitability that remains unusually high. Iโ€™m very positive on the company, and I still view the valuation as reasonable when measured against the current growth in revenue, earnings and margins. The main risk is not the business performance, but expectations and geopolitics, especially China-related export restrictions. $DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corp) also reported, but my view here is more cautious. Revenue growth was solid, helped by HOKA and international sales, and the company remains high quality with strong brands and a clean balance sheet. However, Q4 EPS declined year over year, domestic growth was almost flat, and guidance points to some margin pressure ahead. ๐™๐™ค๐™ง ๐˜ฟ๐™š๐™˜๐™ ๐™š๐™ง๐™จ, ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™ฆ๐™ช๐™š๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™ฌ๐™๐™š๐™ฉ๐™๐™š๐™ง ๐™œ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฉ๐™ ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ช๐™œ๐™ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™Ÿ๐™ช๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™›๐™ฎ ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ช๐™š๐™™ ๐™ค๐™ฌ๐™ฃ๐™š๐™ง๐™จ๐™๐™ž๐™ฅ. Itโ€™s still a good company, but I need to see whether HOKA can keep growing fast enough and whether margin pressure proves temporary. This could influence whether I keep, reduce or eventually exit the position. I also added to our position in $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) after some pullback. AI demand continues to drive strong need for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM, while supply remains tight. That supports pricing, margins and earnings visibility. In my view, ๐™ˆ๐™ž๐™˜๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ก๐™ก ๐™ค๐™›๐™›๐™š๐™ง๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ซ๐™š ๐™š๐™ญ๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™จ๐™ช๐™ง๐™š ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐˜ผ๐™„ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ง๐™–๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ช๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ง๐™š ๐™˜๐™ฎ๐™˜๐™ก๐™š ๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™– ๐™ซ๐™–๐™ก๐™ช๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™ง๐™š๐™ข๐™–๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™ง๐™š๐™–๐™จ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™–๐™—๐™ก๐™š compared with expected earnings growth. ๐Ÿ”ญ ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™’๐™š๐™š๐™  ๐˜ผ๐™๐™š๐™–๐™™ This will be a shortened U.S. trading week due to Memorial Day today. ๐™„๐™ฃ๐™ซ๐™š๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™ง๐™จ ๐™ฌ๐™ž๐™ก๐™ก ๐™›๐™ค๐™˜๐™ช๐™จ ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™›๐™ก๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™™๐™–๐™ฉ๐™–, especially the PCE price index, as well as consumer confidence, housing data, GDP revisions and durable goods orders. ๐™€๐™–๐™ง๐™ฃ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™จ ๐™›๐™ง๐™ค๐™ข ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ข๐™ฅ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™ž๐™š๐™จ ๐™จ๐™ช๐™˜๐™ ๐™–๐™จ $CRM (Salesforce Inc) , $MRVL (Marvell Technology Group Ltd) , $DELL (Dell Technologies Inc C) and Costco will also help investors judge whether AI investment, enterprise spending and consumer demand remain strong enough to support the marketโ€™s recent gains. ๐™’๐™ž๐™จ๐™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ฎ๐™ค๐™ช ๐™– ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ค๐™จ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ง๐™ค๐™ช๐™จ ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™š๐™  ๐™–๐™๐™š๐™–๐™™! ๐Ÿ‘
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.