Vili Stegne @vilist: "𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤: 𝐖𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐁𝐮𝐬 𝐀𝐦..."

Slovenia

𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤: 𝐖𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐁𝐮𝐬 𝐀𝐦 𝐈 𝐆𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐎𝐧? 🚌 With so many outlooks floating around, I wanted to simplify what actually matters for portfolios going into 2026. 𝐌𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞: ➡️ Growth picks up ➡️ Inflation stays sticky ➡️ Stock selection matters more than index beta We’re likely moving from the AI infrastructure phase (chips, energy) into the AI software/productivity phase. That should broaden opportunities—but also increase volatility between winners and losers. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 𝐔𝐒 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡: ~3.5% GDP, supported by private investment incentives 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: Sticky around ~2.8% 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬: One Fed cut early in the year (-0.25%), then a long pause 𝟏𝟎𝐘 𝐘𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝: Range-bound around 4–4.5% 𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬: 𝐒&𝐏 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞: ~7,500 (range 7,200–7,700) Returns won’t be easy—sentiment is already high Expect more chop and dispersion → fundamentals matter 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐈’𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: Favor 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬, 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐲, 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞, 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬 Still constructive on tech, but more selective This looks like a 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤-𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐫’𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭, not a “buy everything” one 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒: 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞: Modest upside, valuation support 𝐉𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐧: Stronger setup (reforms + stimulus), but currency matters 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡: Attractive risk/reward with policy support 𝐀𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬: 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧: Technicals suggest a potential bottoming phase 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝: Supported by central bank demand, but volatile 𝐁𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐦 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞: Protecting gains is just as important as chasing returns. I’m staying selective, diversified, and patient—keeping some dry powder ready for volatility. As always, copiers: this is about 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤-𝐚𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬, not short-term hype. $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $DJ30

3 Mentioned

SPX500

NSDQ100

DJ30

Strictly Necessary Cookies

Performance Cookies

Functional Cookies

Targeting Cookies