Radu Nasoi @RaduNasoi: "What will happen in 2026? The..."

Romania

What will happen in 2026? The S&P 500 enters 2026 after three consecutive years of incredible gains which is awesome but it also raise some concerns. Current levels reflect elevated investor confidence, supported by expectations of AI-driven productivity growth and expansionary fiscal policy. Looking ahead, I see a relatively high probability more than 50% of a meaningful correction in the first half of 2026, potentially in the 8–25% range, driven by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and technical factors. While my base-case outlook remains constructive, this risk profile has led me to reduce exposure to some higher-risk positions like: $RKLB (Rocket Lab Corp) , $ASTS (AST SpaceMobile Inc) , $OSCR (Oscar Health Inc) , $JOBY (Joby Aviation Inc) , $ACHR (Archer Aviation Inc) , $BKSY (Blacksky Technology Inc) , $KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc) . The goal is to preserve capital and maintain flexibility so I can re-enter those names at more attractive valuations if and when a correction materializes. In my central scenario, I expect the market to recover from any pullback and finish 2026 in the 7,500–8000 range, supported by projected EPS growth and the tech sector which will evolve at least on the same pace as in 2025. Overall, although near-term downside risks are rising, any significant weakness in 2026 is more likely to present long-term buying opportunities than signal a structural bear market. PS: Even if a correction does not materialize in the first half of the year or later on, I remain comfortable holding my core positions in $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) $META (Meta Platforms Inc) $UNH (UnitedHealth) and maybe also $CEG (Constellation Energy Corp) as they continue to grow and consolidate.